AfD leads in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Die Linke leads in Berlin as CDU collapses in the east
Regional elections in two German states on September 20 delivered victories to parties opposed to military aid to Ukraine. AfD finished first in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with about 37% of the vote, ahead of the SPD, while Die Linke led in Berlin with roughly 25%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU fell to around 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, prompting Merz to call the result a "catastrophe."
Key points
- Elections to the state parliaments of Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern were held on September 20.
- AfD led in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 37.3–37.9% of the vote (ARD exit poll/projection), ahead of the SPD on 35.6–35.7%.
- CDU won only about 5.3% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the result a "catastrophe."
- In Berlin, Die Linke led with about 24.5–24.9%, followed by CDU on around 20% and AfD on about 16%.
- Both AfD and Die Linke are described as pro-Russian parties that oppose arms deliveries to Ukraine and, in AfD's case, want EU sanctions on Russia lifted.
- Other parties have refused to enter coalition with AfD, meaning it is unlikely to lead the state government in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern despite finishing first.
- The SPD lost its leading position in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the first time in 28 years.
Why it matters
Within two weeks AfD has become the leading party in a second eastern German state, after winning about 44% in Saxony-Anhalt on September 7. Both AfD and Die Linke oppose arms deliveries to Ukraine and are described as pro-Russian; AfD also wants EU sanctions on Russia lifted. The collapse of Chancellor Merz's CDU to roughly 5% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern underlines the scale of the eastern challenge to his chancellorship, even though mainstream parties' refusal to coalition with AfD means it is unlikely to actually govern the state.
What happened
Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern went to the polls on September 20 for elections to their state parliaments, two of Germany's 16 federal states. According to ARD exit polls and projections reported by DW and Tagesschau, AfD won about 37.3–37.9% of the vote in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, narrowly ahead of the SPD on 35.6–35.7%. The CDU of Chancellor Friedrich Merz managed only about 5.3%, a result Merz publicly described as a "catastrophe." Manuela Schwesig's SPD lost its leading position in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for the first time in 28 years, though other parties have stated they will not form a coalition with AfD, meaning AfD is unlikely to head the state government. In Berlin, Die Linke led with roughly 24.5–24.9% of the vote, followed by the CDU on around 20% and AfD on about 16%; the result could allow Die Linke to enter the Berlin state parliament for the first time.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
The three supplied Ukrainian-language outlets — NV, Babel and hromadske — covered the vote as a test for Chancellor Merz and a signal about German attitudes toward Russia and military aid to Ukraine. They repeatedly flagged AfD and Die Linke as parties opposed to weapons deliveries to Ukraine and friendly toward Russia, and they stressed Merz's "disaster"/"catastrophe" verdict on his own party's result. Ukrainian reporting also foregrounded the biographical detail that Manuela Schwesig had been involved before 2022 in a Gazprom-backed foundation set up to support the launch of Nord Stream 2 in circumvention of sanctions, alongside the SPD's loss of its 28-year hold on Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Where reporting differs
Pre-election polls for Berlin had projected Die Linke at 21%, CDU at 20% and AfD at 18%; the ARD exit poll and projection show a stronger Die Linke (about 24.5–24.9%), a roughly unchanged CDU (around 20%) and a weaker AfD (about 16%). Vote-share figures also differ slightly between the ARD exit poll and projection: AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is given as 37.3% versus 37.9%, the SPD as 35.6% versus 35.7%, and Die Linke in Berlin as 24.9% versus 24.5%.
Background
Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are two of Germany's 16 federal states, with significant regional powers in areas including education and certain security matters. AfD has been positioning itself as an ultra-right, pro-Russian party that wants to restore ties with Russia, carry out large-scale deportations and end military aid to Ukraine; Die Linke is also described as pro-Russian and opposed to arms deliveries to Ukraine. On September 7 AfD won about 44% in Saxony-Anhalt, coming close to forming a state government on its own. In the week before the September 20 vote AfD reached a record-high national rating of about 30%, while Merz's CDU fell to a record low of 18–19%. In Berlin, incumbent mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) had decided not to seek re-election; CDU's candidate was state finance minister Stefan Evers, and AfD's lead candidate was faction leader Kristin Brinker. Manuela Schwesig has led Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as SPD premier since 2017; the state has about 1.5 million inhabitants. In 2022 the German press established that before the full-scale invasion Schwesig had been involved in a Gazprom-backed foundation set up to support the launch of Nord Stream 2 in circumvention of sanctions.