AfD leads CDU/CSU by record 12 points in INSA poll, Merz approval at 15%
An INSA poll for Bild published on 3 October puts the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 30% — its highest level ever recorded by the institute — with Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU bloc at an all-time low of 18%. The 12-point gap is the largest INSA has ever measured between the two parties, and 79% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with both the chancellor and the federal government.
Key points
- AfD at 30% (+1 point), CDU/CSU at 18% (–1 point) — a 12-point gap, the largest INSA has ever recorded
- INSA poll for Bild conducted 28 September–2 October among 1,202 respondents, margin of error up to ±2.9 points; published 3 October
- SPD and Greens tied at 14%, Die Linke at 10%, FDP and BSW at 4% each (below the 5% threshold)
- 79% dissatisfied with Merz, 79% dissatisfied with the federal government; 15% satisfied with the chancellor, 14% with the government — both record or near-record lows for INSA
- AfD took 20.8% in February 2025 federal election (152 Bundestag seats); CDU/CSU took 28.5% (208 seats)
- AfD won September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election with 43.8%; CDU took 17.2%
- Experts say a two-party coalition is impossible under these numbers; only a CDU/CSU–SPD–Greens combination is viable
Why it matters
The AfD's lead over the governing CDU/CSU is the largest INSA has ever recorded, signalling an unprecedented reordering of Germany's party system while Chancellor Merz is in office. With a two-party coalition described as impossible under these numbers, only a fragile three-way CDU/CSU–SPD–Greens combination remains a viable national government. The AfD's federal result of 20.8% in February 2025 is already nearly 10 points below its current polling, and the party won the September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election with 43.8% — evidence that the surge is showing up in actual election outcomes, not just one poll. The record-low 14% satisfaction with the federal government points to a broad legitimacy crisis for the sitting administration.
What happened
An INSA poll for Bild, published on 3 October, put the AfD at 30% — its highest level ever recorded by the institute and one point higher than the previous measurement. The CDU/CSU bloc of Chancellor Friedrich Merz fell to 18%, its lowest level in INSA's polling history and one point below the previous measurement. The 12-point gap between the two parties is the largest INSA has ever measured. The Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens were tied at 14%, the Left party (Die Linke) polled at 10%, and the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) were both at 4%, below the 5% threshold for entering the Bundestag. The poll was conducted 28 September–2 October among 1,202 respondents, with a stated margin of error of up to ±2.9 percentage points. Experts noted that a two-party coalition is impossible under these numbers, leaving only a three-way CDU/CSU–SPD–Greens combination as a viable national government. On approval, 79% of respondents said they were dissatisfied with Merz and 79% with the federal government overall; 15% were satisfied with the chancellor and 14% with the government — the latter a record low for INSA. The AfD's current 30% is nearly 10 percentage points above its 20.8% result in the February 2025 federal election, when it won 152 Bundestag seats. The CDU/CSU's 18% is roughly 10 points below its 28.5% election result.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
The sole supplied source is Ukrainian-language, and its headline foregrounds the 12-point gap and the AfD leading Merz's party, framing the poll primarily as a setback for the sitting chancellor rather than as a story about the AfD's own trajectory. The piece embeds a direct Ukraine-relevant implication into coverage of an otherwise domestic German polling story, quoting German historian and political expert Thomas Wee that Berlin's support for Ukraine is currently stable but that Ukrainian authorities should prepare for a possible future change in policy, and that the AfD could gain enough votes by the 2029 federal election to participate in forming a government.
Background
The INSA poll was conducted 28 September–2 October 2025 among 1,202 respondents, with a stated margin of error of up to ±2.9 percentage points. In the February 2025 federal election, the AfD took 20.8% of second votes and 152 Bundestag seats, while the CDU/CSU took 28.5% and 208 seats, making the AfD the second-largest force in the Bundestag. In the September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, the AfD won 43.8% and the CDU 17.2%, with the AfD up 23 points versus 2021. German historian and political expert Thomas Wee argues that Germany's support for Ukraine is currently stable but advises Ukrainian authorities to prepare for a possible future change in Berlin's policy course, and does not rule out the AfD gaining enough votes by the 2029 federal election to participate in forming a government.