Meloni calls US–Russia diesel deal "very risky," warns it funds Putin's war
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on October 14 criticised a US–Russia understanding on Russian diesel supplies as "very risky," saying it provides new revenue to finance Russia's war and undermines the sanctions-based pressure on Moscow. The deal, announced by President Donald Trump on October 9 alongside a US Treasury license permitting Russian diesel imports through April 2027, has drawn objections from a bipartisan group of US senators and Ukrainian officials who view it as a betrayal of Western efforts to cut off Russian war funding.
Key points
- On October 9, Trump announced an understanding with Putin to supply more than 300,000 tonnes of Russian diesel to American and world markets immediately, with 500,000 tonnes in November and 1 million tonnes over a short subsequent period.
- The US Treasury issued General License No. 135 permitting the sale, delivery, offloading and import of Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027.
- On October 11, Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" covering only a suspension of strikes on oil refineries in both countries; Russia continued striking Ukraine after the announcement.
- Minutes after the diesel deal was announced, the Kremlin confirmed Putin will not negotiate with Ukraine, citing anger over strikes during State Duma elections.
- Kyiv said it was not informed in advance of the diesel understanding; Ukraine's halting of strikes is conditional on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities before winter.
- A bipartisan group of 12 US senators and a separate group of seven senators demanded the deal's cancellation, citing a 2022 Congressional ban on Russian energy imports.
- The arrangement coincides with US midterm elections on November 3 and a diesel price spike that experts, Russian officials and Meloni attribute to the war around Iran rather than to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
Why it matters
The agreement eases sanctions on Russian energy at a moment when the US is simultaneously pressuring Kyiv to halt the very strikes that have cut Russian oil revenues and export capacity. Russia has continued to attack Ukraine's energy and water infrastructure ahead of winter and the Kremlin said Putin will not currently negotiate, undercutting the deal's diplomatic rationale. Both Italian Prime Minister Meloni and a bipartisan group of US senators publicly challenged the arrangement as legally questionable and as effectively providing revenue to finance Russia's war, while analysts argue the announced volumes are too small to materially affect prices.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian sources frame the deal as a betrayal that undermines years of Western efforts to cut off Russian war financing. They point to Trump's public call for Ukraine to choose a new leader and to reported US pressure on Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian oil facilities as coercive moves against Ukraine. They stress the asymmetry of being asked to stop strikes while Russia continues attacking Ukrainian energy and water infrastructure ahead of winter, and feature Ukrainian analysts arguing the announced volumes are small relative to demand and that Moscow's real goal is to use the deal to widen sanctions relief for broader Russian energy exports.
How international sources describe it
International coverage focuses on the deal's domestic-US context, with analysts quoted in Chinese press framing it as a reciprocal, possibly temporary, electoral manoeuvre whose impact may be more geopolitical than on supply, and warning that secondary-tariff pressure on other importers may persist even as the US itself buys Russian energy. European voices, exemplified by the Italian prime minister, and bipartisan US senators publicly challenged the deal as legally questionable and as providing revenue to finance Russia's war and eroding sanctions-based pressure on Moscow.
Where reporting differs
Sources disagree on the volume and feasibility of the announced Russian diesel supplies: Zelensky and analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky doubt whether the 300,000–500,000 tonnes a month is meaningful or deliverable, while the Institute for the Study of War reports Russia is likely to prioritise fulfilling the deal over its own domestic fuel market and Alexander Novak says exports will not disrupt Russia's domestic market. Sources also differ on whether Washington threatened to suspend intelligence-sharing and arms supplies to pressure Kyiv: European officials cited via Chinese press report them, while Trump publicly said the US continues to share intelligence with Ukraine and is working with both sides. Sources further disagree on the cause of the US diesel shortage: Trump's framing and the deal's stated rationale attribute it to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, whereas experts, Meloni, Russian officials themselves and ISW analysts tie it to the war around Iran.
Background
Trump and Putin met in Anchorage, Alaska, on 15 August 2025, and on 18 September 2025 Trump signed the Graham Law allowing secondary tariffs of up to 100% on countries importing Russian energy. Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure forced Russia, a major global diesel supplier, to suspend exports, and Russia's oil and gas tax revenues fell 17% in the first three quarters of the year. Russian strikes had put Ukraine's only key oil refinery out of operation in 2022, and Ukraine has conditioned halting its refinery strikes on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure before winter. Oil prices had earlier fallen to about $60 a barrel before rising above $100 after the US and Israel began a war against Iran, which experts say is the primary driver of US diesel prices.