Institute for the Study of War (ISW)
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American think tank based in Washington, D.C., founded in 2007. It focuses on defence and security policy, with particular attention to armed conflicts and military operations. Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the institute has produced daily assessments of the war that have become a widely cited source for Western governments, media and military analysts.
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General Staff reports 177 combat clashes on October 19; Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions see heaviest fighting on October 18
Ukraine's General Staff recorded 204 combat clashes along the front line on October 18 and 177 from the start of October 19 through 22:00, with the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions singled out as the most active on October 18. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted geolocated footage of a Russian serviceman raising a flag in the southeastern part of Dobropillia on October 18, while Ukrainian military command denied Russian claims of the city's capture or encirclement.
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General Staff reports 203 combat clashes on 12 October, 206 since start of 13 October; Russian losses estimated at 1,555,700
Ukraine's General Staff reported 203 combat clashes over the past day (12 October) and 206 clashes since the start of 13 October, with the Pokrovsk direction remaining the most active. Russian personnel losses for the past day were reported at 1,390, bringing cumulative Russian losses since 24 February 2022 to about 1,555,700. Russian forces carried out 90 airstrikes, dropped 301 guided aerial bombs, used 9,516 kamikaze drones, and conducted 2,619 shellings of populated areas and Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian aviation, missile forces and artillery struck a Russian personnel concentration area and a UAV control point.
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ISW: Russia begins winter energy strike campaign earlier than usual to pressure Ukraine into capitulation
The Institute for the Study of War assessed on October 4 that Russia has started its seasonal campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure earlier than in previous years, ahead of the 2026–2027 heating season. ISW said the goal is to make civilian life unbearable and force Ukraine to capitulate, and that the Russian Ministry of Defence's claims of retaliating for Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian objects are pretextual. The assessment comes as Russia has already struck energy facilities in multiple oblasts and bridges in Kyiv repeatedly in early October.
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Ukraine's Third Army Corps confirms "Vivaldi" offensive near Lyman
Ukraine's Third Army Corps publicly confirmed on September 15 that it has been running an offensive operation codenamed "Vivaldi" in the northern part of Donetsk Oblast, east and northeast of Lyman. The corps revealed details of the first phase, which targeted Russian troop infiltration and logistics, and reported Russian losses in personnel, drones and equipment. The announcement broke months of operational secrecy around the fighting.