Institute for the Study of War
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American think tank founded in 2007 that focuses on analyzing armed conflicts and publishes daily assessments of the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
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Zelenskyy says Ukraine holds more territory than Russia has taken since autumn, pushes back on Gerasimov's Zaporizhzhia claims
In his evening address on October 18, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces have liberated more territory since the start of autumn than Russia has captured, and that the same trend has held in other periods of 2025. He pushed back on claims by Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, asserting that Russian forces are being engaged about 20 km from Zaporizhzhia, not 5 km as Russia claims, and that several named settlements remain under Ukrainian control.
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Day 1695: 260 combat clashes recorded, Pokrovsk direction sees heaviest fighting
The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported 260 combat clashes along the front line over the past day. The Pokrovsk direction saw the highest concentration of attacks at 35. Russian forces launched one missile strike, 85 airstrikes dropping 278 guided aerial bombs, 8,224 kamikaze drones, and 2,625 shellings of Ukrainian positions and settlements, 15 of them using multiple launch rocket systems.
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SpaceX throttles military Starlink terminals in Ukraine without warning, disrupting drone operations
In the night of October 13–14, SpaceX unilaterally restricted the speed of Starshield — the military package of Starlink satellite terminals — used by Ukraine's Defense Forces, without prior notice. The cap of roughly 100 mph (160 km/h), later reported to have been tightened to 60–70 km/h in some units, disrupted drone operations on the Huliaipole direction, hampered the use of interceptor drones against Russian Shaheds, and forced the cancellation of several missions. President Zelensky called the move a "big mistake," presidential adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said it was linked to the political situation, and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski publicly accused Elon Musk of politicizing his products.
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Syrskyi in first major interview since dismissal: Ukraine's war outcome uncertain, Kursk operation a success
Former Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, dismissed by President Zelenskyy in July, gave his first major interview to the BBC in which he said it is impossible to say with certainty whether Ukraine is winning or losing the war, defended the 2024 Kursk operation as a successful and necessary maneuver, and detailed his procurement-related disagreements with former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov. He denied issuing any ultimatum to Fedorov and said the decision to remove him rested solely with the president. The interview was published on 13 October 2026.
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General Staff reports 203 combat clashes on 12 October, 206 since start of 13 October; Russian losses estimated at 1,555,700
Ukraine's General Staff reported 203 combat clashes over the past day (12 October) and 206 clashes since the start of 13 October, with the Pokrovsk direction remaining the most active. Russian personnel losses for the past day were reported at 1,390, bringing cumulative Russian losses since 24 February 2022 to about 1,555,700. Russian forces carried out 90 airstrikes, dropped 301 guided aerial bombs, used 9,516 kamikaze drones, and conducted 2,619 shellings of populated areas and Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian aviation, missile forces and artillery struck a Russian personnel concentration area and a UAV control point.
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Ukrainian parliament summons Kyiv mayor Klitschko to report on winter preparations
The Verkhovna Rada voted 151 in favor on October 13 to summon Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko for a report, on an initiative by Servant of the People MP Maryana Bezuhla. Klitschko delivered a 5-minute address the following day, calling the accusations of sabotaging heating-season preparations baseless and arguing that the summons was an attempt to remove him and erode local self-government. The vote came after repeated Russian strikes on Kyiv's energy infrastructure, which Klitschko said have destroyed the city's own generation capacity and forced full dependence on the national grid.
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Ukraine's General Staff reports 264 combat clashes; heaviest fighting on Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka axes
Ukraine's General Staff reported 264 combat clashes over the past day, with the heaviest fighting on the Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka directions. Russian forces carried out 73 airstrikes, dropped 238 guided aerial bombs, deployed 8,985 kamikaze drones, and conducted 2,468 shellings of populated areas and Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian aviation, missile troops, and artillery struck an enemy troop concentration area, an artillery system, and a UAV launch pad.
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Trump announces Russian diesel deal with Putin, urges Ukraine to choose a new president
On October 9, 2026, US President Donald Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and announced an agreement to allow between 300,000 and 3 million tons of Russian diesel fuel onto US and global markets. Trump then publicly attacked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of being able to end the war but choosing not to, and saying it was time for Ukraine to choose a new president. Zelenskyy called the decision weak and a gift to Russia that would fund the war, while bipartisan US lawmakers and European leaders condemned the agreement.
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Trump announces Russia diesel deal after Putin call; Ukraine and European leaders condemn move
On 9 October 2026, US President Donald Trump announced he had spoken by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to lift US sanctions on Russian diesel, allowing large-scale exports to American and global markets. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License No. 135 authorising the imports until 7 April 2027. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sharply criticised the decision, calling it a "weak" and "unfair and dishonest" birthday gift to Putin that gives Russia additional billions for the war, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, the UK, Germany, France, Finland, Sweden, Estonia, and US Democrats all condemned or distanced themselves from the deal. Talks between Ukrainian, US and European delegations in Miami ended early after the announcement, and a senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times that long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries would continue.
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Montenegro detains and expels founder of Russian propaganda network 'Rybar' and four associates
On 9 October, Montenegrin police, working with the country's National Security Agency, detained Mykhailo Zvinchuk, the founder of the Russian propaganda network "Rybar," along with his wife Valeriia Zvinchuk and three other Russian citizens in the town of Risan. All five have been ordered expelled on national-security grounds and had their residence permits revoked. The operation comes as "Rybar" is already under EU, UK and US sanctions, with the US State Department offering up to $10 million for information on its associates.
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ISW: Russia begins winter energy strike campaign earlier than usual to pressure Ukraine into capitulation
The Institute for the Study of War assessed on October 4 that Russia has started its seasonal campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure earlier than in previous years, ahead of the 2026–2027 heating season. ISW said the goal is to make civilian life unbearable and force Ukraine to capitulate, and that the Russian Ministry of Defence's claims of retaliating for Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian objects are pretextual. The assessment comes as Russia has already struck energy facilities in multiple oblasts and bridges in Kyiv repeatedly in early October.
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Russian drones hit Kyiv's Pivdennyi Bridge for fourth time in a day, paralysing cross-river traffic
Russian forces struck the Pivdennyi (Southern) Bridge in Kyiv with drones around 5:00 a.m. on 2 October 2026, the fourth hit on the bridge in roughly 24 hours and part of a wave of attacks that fully closed the bridge and restricted traffic on the Paton and Metro bridges. The overnight strike also hit a 25-storey residential building in the Darnytskyi district, killing one person and injuring two. The closures caused a major transport collapse across the city, with large traffic jams, rerouted buses and trolleybuses, and a Kyiv Defense Council decision to tighten bridge rules during air-raid alerts.
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Putin tells Valdai forum Ukraine must stay neutral, hints at nuclear use, rejects mutual strike halt
Vladimir Putin used a plenary address at the 23rd Valdai Discussion Club on October 1 to demand that Ukraine remain a neutral state, suggest nuclear weapons will eventually be used, and reject a mutual halt to strikes on ships and Russian oil refineries. He also restated that full control of Donbas and Ukraine's neutral status are conditions for any peace settlement, framed Trump's peace proposals as a "movement in the right direction" despite "difficult" decisions for Russia, and called for UN reform giving greater weight to Asia, Africa, and Latin America.
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Russian drone strike near Yahodyn border crossing prompts Polish military scramble, airport shutdowns
On 28 September, a Russian reactive drone struck near the Yahodyn international border crossing on the Ukrainian-Polish border in Volyn Oblast. Poland scrambled military aviation, placed air-defence and radar systems on alert, and suspended operations at Rzeszów and Lublin airports. No casualties were reported, but the blast wave damaged the entry-terminal building of the checkpoint, according to the head of the Volyn Oblast Military Administration.
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Trump pushes for Ukraine-Russia deal before winter; Zelenskyy says Putin shows no intent to end war
After a September 22 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US President Donald Trump said on September 26 he expects Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin to "make a deal before the difficult winter." In an evening address the same day, Zelenskyy countered that Putin is not planning to end the war and keeps finding excuses to avoid meetings and a trilateral format.
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Zelensky declares Ukraine ready for energy, grain and maritime ceasefires as Russia rejects energy proposal
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on 22 September 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met US President Donald Trump and announced Ukraine is ready for reciprocal ceasefires in energy, grain and maritime domains. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said after meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on 23 September that both sides expressed interest in a limited ceasefire, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the energy proposal and Russia's Vladimir Putin again insisted on maximalist war aims. The prospect of a trilateral meeting was left to the G20 summit in Miami on 14–15 December, where Putin's participation remains disputed.
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Ukrainian drone strike halts Moscow oil refinery on day of State Duma vote
On the night of 20 September, Ukrainian forces struck the Gazpromneft-Moscow refinery in the Kapotnya district of Moscow with a combined drone and missile attack, setting both primary crude distillation units ablaze and forcing a full halt of oil processing. Ukraine's General Staff says cumulative strikes have now knocked out more than 45% of Russia's designed oil refining capacity. The attack fell on the day of Russia's State Duma election, with Moscow authorities not activating air raid sirens or SMS warnings, an omission analysts at the Institute for the Study of War linked to a priority on voter turnout over civilian safety.
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Ukraine's military intelligence shows North Korean missile components to Japanese delegation in Kyiv
Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) showed components of a North Korean ballistic missile to a Japanese parliamentary delegation visiting Kyiv on September 19. The delegation was led by Speaker of the House of Representatives Eisuke Mori. HUR said the demonstration underscored that North Korean armaments threaten not only Ukraine but also Japan and other Asia-Pacific states.
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Russian Major General Anton Grunis killed in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine's drone forces claim strike
Russian Major General Anton Grunis, commander of the 4th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, was killed in Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi said the 427th Separate Unmanned Systems Battalion "Rarog" carried out the strike on September 12. Grunis had earlier briefed Vladimir Putin about the alleged capture of Kostiantynivka, a claim Ukraine denies.
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Russian drone strikes passenger train near Ukrainian-Polish border; diplomatic train with European officials had just left
On the morning of 13 September 2026, a Russian jet-powered mesh drone struck the locomotive of a Kyiv-to-Warsaw passenger train at the Yahodyn station, about two kilometres from the Polish border in Volyn Oblast. A diplomatic train carrying former European leaders and current security advisors, returning from the YES conference in Kyiv, had departed the station shortly before the strike. No one was injured. Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia) suggested the diplomatic train may have been the intended target; the Institute for the Study of War assessed the strike was meant to wound or kill European officials leaving Ukraine.