Trump announces "large-scale" US deal to buy Belarusian potash
On 21 September, US President Donald Trump said Washington is working on a "large-scale" deal to purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus, claiming the price would be significantly lower than what the US currently pays Canada. The announcement, made via Truth Social, comes against the backdrop of a US-Canada trade war and ahead of US midterm elections, and has prompted a public response from Lithuania.
Key points
- Trump announced the planned potash purchase deal in a post on Truth Social on 21 September.
- He said Belarusian potash would be significantly cheaper than what the US currently buys from Canada.
- In March 2025 the Trump administration lifted sanctions on Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company, conditioned on the release of political prisoners by the Lukashenko regime.
- On 16 September, US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale announced the release of 25 Belarusian political prisoners during a visit to Minsk; in return the US lifted sanctions on Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom.
- In May 2025 the US asked Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash to allow transit through their territory; Lithuania says it was not informed about the new US-Belarus deal.
- Lukashenko publicly stated Belarus could not supply the US with the required volumes of potash even if it wanted to.
- In 2021 Belarus supplied more than 700,000 tonnes of potash to the US; total US imports that year were about 13 million tonnes, nearly 90% from Canada.
Why it matters
The deal would reopen a major revenue stream for the Lukashenko regime that Western sanctions had sought to cut off. The US has separately been pressing Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to lift their own restrictions and allow Belarusian potash transit, putting transatlantic allies in a difficult position. Trump framed the move as a cost-saving alternative to Canadian potash at a time of escalating US-Canada trade tensions and ahead of US midterm elections, while Lithuania's public response shows EU member states being drawn into a US-Belarus economic arrangement they were not consulted on.
What happened
On 21 September, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Washington is preparing a "large-scale" deal to purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus. He said the price of Belarusian potash would be significantly lower than what the US currently pays Canada, and that the deal would benefit American farmers and ranchers. The announcement came as the US and Canada are engaged in an escalating trade war involving mutual import tariffs; US tariffs on Canada do not currently cover potash, oil or critical minerals. Lithuania's Seimas Foreign Affairs Committee head Remigijus Motuzas responded that Lithuania was not informed about the deal, that it has no grounds to lift sanctions on Belarus, and that EU sanctions remain in force until the end of February. He added that Minsk continues to support Russia's war against Ukraine and that Lithuania and other neighboring states face ongoing hybrid attacks from Belarus. Separately, Lukashenko publicly stated that Belarus could not supply the required volumes of potash even if it wanted to.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian-language coverage foregrounds the pressure the US has been putting on Ukraine specifically to lift its restrictions on Belarusian fertilizers, which are described as an important source of funding for the Lukashenko regime. The Lithuanian reaction is highlighted as evidence that European allies were caught off guard by the US move, and the broader framing stresses the political and war-finance dimension of reopening the Belarusian potash trade.
How international sources describe it
International outlets such as Bloomberg situate the announcement against the backdrop of the escalating US-Canada trade war and the upcoming US midterm elections. Coverage stresses the economic angle for American farmers and ranchers, with Trump presenting Belarusian potash as cheaper than Canadian supply. Reporting also notes that US tariffs on Canada exempt key resources including potash, framing the deal as political signalling toward Canada rather than a purely commercial decision.
Where reporting differs
Sources disagree on whether the deal is viable: Trump announced a "large-scale" purchase agreement, while Lukashenko publicly stated Belarus could not supply the required volumes. There is also a discrepancy in how the political-prisoner exchange is framed: some facts describe the March 2025 sanctions relief on Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company as conditioned on the release of political prisoners, while other facts describe a separate, more recent exchange in September 2025 in which the US lifted sanctions on Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom in return for the release of 25 prisoners. Additionally, different transliterations of the US Special Envoy's name appear across the supplied material: "John Coale" in some facts and "John Cole" in others.
Background
Before Western sanctions linked to political repression in Belarus and Minsk's support for Russia's war against Ukraine, potash was an important source of foreign currency revenue for Belarus. In 2021, the year before the sanctions, Belarus supplied the US with more than 700,000 tonnes of potash; total US imports that year were about 13 million tonnes, nearly 90% from Canada. Canada remains one of the world's largest potash exporters, and US tariffs on Canada do not currently apply to key natural-resource imports including oil, potash and critical minerals. In May 2025 the US asked Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash to allow transit through their territory.