Trump announces large-scale US-Belarus potash deal; Lukashenko says Belarus has no spare volumes

Why it matters

The announced deal would deepen US economic engagement with the Lukashenko regime, which is under Western sanctions partly because of its support for Russia's war against Ukraine, and would create a new revenue stream for Minsk while Belarusian fertilizer transit through the EU and neighboring states remains restricted. It also exposes a growing split between US and EU/Baltic sanctions policy toward Belarus, complicating transatlantic coordination on Russia-linked regimes, and signals a broader US normalization track with Minsk that already includes sanctions relief on Belaruskali, the Belarusian Potash Company, Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom in exchange for political prisoner releases. Lukashenko's claim that Belarus cannot supply the requested volumes raises serious doubts about whether the deal as announced is commercially viable.

What happened

On 21 September, US President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that Washington is working on a large-scale deal to purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus, arguing the price would be significantly lower than what the US currently pays Canada and that the deal would be good news for American farmers and ranchers. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko immediately pushed back, saying Belarus has no spare potash volumes to supply the United States because everything is already contracted. Speaking later at a joint press conference with Volodymyr Zelensky at the UN General Assembly in New York, Trump said the deal would not benefit Russia.

The announcement builds on a string of earlier US moves toward Minsk. In March 2025 the Trump administration lifted US sanctions on Belarusian potash producers Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company in exchange for the release of a group of political prisoners by the Lukashenko regime. On 16 September, US Special Envoy for Belarus John Coale (also rendered Cole in some sources) announced in Minsk the release of 25 Belarusian political prisoners, after which the US lifted sanctions on Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom. Coale suggested further prisoner releases and sanctions relief on other Belarusian companies could follow.

Lithuania reacted sharply. Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said the EU has no grounds to ease sanctions on Belarus and that Lithuania sees no reason to soften its position, citing continued persecution of opponents and human rights violations, and noting that approximately 1,000 people Lithuania considers political prisoners remain in Belarusian prisons. Remigijus Motuzas, chair of the Lithuanian Seimas Committee on Foreign Affairs, said Lithuania was not informed about the US-Belarus potash deal and does not intend to change its sanctions policy, adding that EU sanctions on Belarus are in effect until the end of February and acknowledging that Lithuania cannot influence the US-Belarus arrangement. Implementation of the deal would require EU and Baltic consent because EU sanctions currently block transit of Belarusian fertilizers through Lithuania to the port of Klaipėda. The announcement also came on the eve of US midterm elections and amid an escalating trade war with Canada involving mutual tariffs; Trump's tariffs do not apply to key natural resource imports from Canada, including oil, potash, and critical minerals.

How international sources describe it

Trump's announcement came on the eve of US midterm elections and amid an escalating trade war with Canada involving mutual tariffs, though US tariffs do not apply to several of the most important natural resources the US imports from Canada, including oil, potash, and critical minerals. Canada is the world's largest potash supplier, with about 90% of US potash imports (around 13 million tonnes) coming from Canada; in pre-sanctions 2021 Belarus supplied over 700,000 tonnes to the US. The episode highlights a transatlantic split, with the Trump administration moving toward normalization with Minsk through sanctions relief and a large potash deal, while Lithuania and the EU as a whole insist they will not ease sanctions on Belarus and that Minsk continues to pursue hybrid operations against EU states and to support Russia's war against Ukraine.

Where reporting differs

Trump and Lukashenko are at odds over whether the announced deal is even possible: Trump announced a 'large-scale' US-Belarus potash purchase, while Lukashenko said Belarus has no spare potash volumes because everything is already contracted. Sources also differ on whether the March 2025 sanctions relief on Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company and the post-16 September relief on Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom were tied to the same prisoner release or to separate arrangements. The US spelling of the special envoy's surname varies across the supplied facts between 'Coale' and 'Cole'.

Background

In March 2025 the Trump administration lifted US sanctions on Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company in exchange for political prisoner releases; on 16 September US Special Envoy John Coale announced in Minsk the release of 25 political prisoners, after which the US also lifted sanctions on Lakokraska and Bellesbumprom. Pre-sanctions, potash was an important source of foreign currency revenue for Belarus; in 2021 Belarus supplied over 700,000 tonnes of potash to the United States, against total US imports of about 13 million tonnes, nearly 90% from Canada. In May 2025 the US asked Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash to allow transit; EU sanctions currently block transit through Lithuania to the port of Klaipėda. Lithuania accuses Belarus of hybrid operations including migration pressure, smuggling, and balloon launches, and in September Belarus held military exercises near Poland and Lithuania close to the Suwalki Corridor.