KIIS poll: Zelensky trust jumped mid-survey after US pressure, monthly level unchanged
A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) telephone poll conducted October 8–16, 2026 found that 54% of Ukrainian citizens trust President Volodymyr Zelensky and 41% do not. KIIS said these monthly figures were identical to those from late August to early September, but that trust rose sharply during the survey window: 43% among respondents polled October 8–9 versus 57% among those polled October 10–16. KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky attributed the shift to a "rally-around-the-flag" effect triggered by US pressure on Ukraine.
Key points
- KIIS poll of 1,031 adults on government-controlled territory, conducted October 8–16, 2026, found 54% trust Zelensky and 41% distrust.
- Respondents polled October 8–9: 43% trust, 52% distrust; those polled October 10–16: 57% trust, 39% distrust.
- KIIS says the overall monthly figures match late August – early September results, meaning the trust level did not change over the month.
- KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky attributes the mid-survey rise to a rally-around-the-flag effect in response to US pressure.
- 73% of Ukrainians opposed a more conciliatory negotiating position with Russia; 20% supported it.
- On October 19, US President Donald Trump said "it is time for someone else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine."
- Trump halted sanctions, tariffs and restrictions under the bipartisan "Lindsey Graham law" aimed at pressuring Russia.
- Earlier in October, Trump announced a US–Russia deal on millions of tons of Russian diesel after a phone call with Putin; Ukraine and the EU criticized the deal.
- Statistical margin of error: 7.7% for the October 8–9 subsample (274 respondents), 4.6% for October 10–16 (757 respondents), and under 4% for the overall sample.
Why it matters
The findings show a short-term rally in Zelensky's support during the polling period rather than a sustained monthly gain. The results frame how Ukrainian public opinion is responding to US pressure, Trump's personal criticism of Zelensky, and the announced US–Russia diesel deal, while also highlighting that 73% of Ukrainians oppose a more conciliatory approach in talks with Russia. The poll's short-window figures carry a larger margin of error than the overall sample, which limits how strongly the mid-survey swing can be interpreted.
What happened
KIIS ran a CATI telephone poll of 1,031 adult Ukrainian citizens living on government-controlled territory from October 8 to 16, 2026, excluding residents of temporarily occupied territories and people who left Ukraine after February 24, 2022. The overall result was 54% trust and 41% distrust for President Volodymyr Zelensky, a balance of +13 percentage points, identical to late August – early September figures.
Within the survey window the picture changed sharply. Among 274 respondents interviewed October 8–9, 43% said they trusted Zelensky and 52% did not. Among 757 respondents interviewed October 10–16, trust rose to 57% and distrust fell to 39%. KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky said the gap exceeded normal methodological variation and pointed to a rally-around-the-flag effect in response to US pressure on Ukraine, adding that 2025's rally was smaller and shorter than 2022's and that this episode could be even shorter.
Separately, 73% of respondents said they disagreed with the need for the authorities to take a more conciliatory position in negotiations with Russia, while 20% supported such an approach. The poll was conducted against the backdrop of Trump's announcement earlier in October of a US–Russia deal on millions of tons of Russian diesel following a call with Vladimir Putin, Trump's October 19 statement that "it is time for someone else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine," and his decision to halt sanctions, tariffs and restrictions under the bipartisan Lindsey Graham law aimed at pressuring Russia.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian outlets stressed the sharp intra-survey swing from 43% to 57% trust while also noting that the monthly figures matched the late August – early September results. They highlighted KIIS's interpretation of the rise as a rally-around-the-flag response to US pressure and emphasized that the duration of the effect is still uncertain. Coverage linked the polling context to Zelensky's criticism of Trump's policy shift, the US–Russia diesel deal that Ukraine and the EU criticized, and the finding that 73% of Ukrainians oppose a more conciliatory negotiating stance.
How international sources describe it
International framing centered on Trump's continued criticism of Zelensky, his October 19 statement that someone else should negotiate for Ukraine, his support for ending the war, and his decision to suspend sanctions, tariffs and restrictions under the Lindsey Graham law. Coverage also pointed to the announced US–Russia diesel deal after Trump's call with Putin and the criticism it drew from Ukraine and the EU, using the polling to illustrate how international pressure and policy developments are feeding back into Ukrainian domestic support for the president.
Where reporting differs
Ukrainian sources differ on the date attached to the announcement of the US–Russia diesel deal: one account places it on October 9, while another refers to the agreement only as occurring earlier in the month without a specific date.
Background
The KIIS telephone poll surveyed 1,031 adults on government-controlled Ukrainian territory from October 8 to October 16, 2026; residents of temporarily occupied territories and people who left Ukraine after February 24, 2022, were excluded. Overall, 54% said they trusted Zelensky and 41% said they did not, a +13 point trust balance identical to late August – early September. KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky linked the mid-survey rise to a rally-around-the-flag effect and noted that earlier such effects were smaller and shorter than the 2022 episode. The poll followed the announcement of a US–Russia diesel deal, criticism of that deal by Ukraine and the EU, Trump's continued criticism of Zelensky, and changes to the implementation of the bipartisan Lindsey Graham law.