Russia's oil and gas tax revenues drop 17% in nine months despite higher prices
Russia's oil and gas tax revenues fell 17% in the first nine months of 2026, reaching 5,47 trillion rubles ($64.43 billion) compared to 6,61 trillion rubles a year earlier. The decline came even as Urals crude prices more than doubled from pre-war levels, driven by falling production, export constraints and Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries.
Key points
- Oil and gas tax revenues for January–September 2026 totaled 5.47 trillion rubles ($64.43 billion), down 17% from 6.61 trillion rubles a year earlier.
- Oil and gas taxes supply about 20% of Russia's budget revenue.
- Russia's 2026 budget deficit is forecast at 3% of GDP, nearly double the planned figure.
- Urals crude exceeded $92 per barrel at the end of September and hit $113.89 on April 8, its highest since 2013; pre-war Urals traded around $45.
- OPEC data shows Russian oil production fell more than 5.6% in August to 8.718 million barrels per day, down from 9.240 million in January.
- Russia's revised 2026 oil production forecast is the lowest in 17 years.
- Ukraine's defense minister says drones have knocked out more than 51% of Russia's refining capacity; the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk is operating below capacity.
Why it matters
Oil and gas taxes account for about one-fifth of Russia's budget, so a 17% drop in those revenues directly weakens the Kremlin's finances during the war. Russia's 2026 budget deficit is forecast at 3% of GDP, nearly double the planned figure. Even though Urals prices have more than doubled since the start of the conflict, production has fallen to a 17-year low. Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, which Kyiv says have knocked out more than half of Russia's refining capacity, are emerging as a major constraint on both fuel output and the tax base that funds the war effort.
What happened
Russian oil and gas tax revenues for the first nine months of 2026 came in at 5,47 trillion rubles ($64,43 billion), down 17% from 6,61 trillion rubles in the same period of the previous year. The drop occurred despite higher crude prices: Urals exceeded $92 per barrel at the end of September, having peaked at $113.89 on April 8, the highest level since 2013, amid Middle East supply disruptions. Pre-war, Urals traded at roughly $45 per barrel on FOB terms out of that port.
The decline in revenues was driven by falling production and exports. According to OPEC, Russian oil output fell more than 5.6% in August, to 8.718 million barrels per day from 9.240 million in January. Russia has revised its 2026 oil and gas production and export forecast downward, with the new oil production forecast at the lowest in 17 years. The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk operated below capacity last year due to security risks following Ukrainian attacks and a shortage of tankers.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have compounded the problem. Ukraine's Defense Minister Yevheniia Khmara said long-range strikes have disabled more than 51% of Russia's refining capacity, and Ukraine's Defense Ministry said production and procurement of long-range strike drones tripled this year. Listed targets include the Moscow, Yaroslavl, KINEF, Novatek-Ust-Luga, Perm, Ilysky, Saratov, and Syzran refineries. The strikes have forced production cuts and caused fuel shortages across 11 time zones in Russia.
Macroeconomic factors also played a role. During January–August 2026 the ruble was on average 9% stronger against the dollar than in the same period of 2025, reducing the ruble-denominated value of dollar-priced crude. The average oil price used for Russian tax calculations rose to $66.70 per barrel in January–August, from $59.12 a year earlier. In September alone, oil and gas revenues came in at 452.4 billion rubles, 22% lower than in the same period the previous year. On September 28, Vladimir Putin signed a decree restricting access to information in the fuel and energy sector.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian sources emphasize the role of Ukrainian strikes in driving Russia's revenue decline. Defense Minister Yevheniia Khmara is quoted saying long-range strikes by Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces have disabled more than 51% of Russia's refining capacity. Ukrainian coverage lists specific refineries struck, including the Moscow, Yaroslavl, KINEF, Novatek-Ust-Luga, Perm, Ilysky, Saratov, and Syzran facilities, and cites the Defense Ministry's claim that production and procurement of long-range strike drones tripled this year. The revenue shortfall is framed as evidence that strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are materially constraining the Kremlin's ability to finance the war.
How international sources describe it
International (Reuters) reporting focuses on the macroeconomic picture: the 17% year-on-year drop in oil and gas tax revenues, the 3%-of-GDP budget deficit, and the divergence between rising Urals prices and falling volumes. Reuters highlights structural factors beyond strikes, including Russia's lowest oil production forecast in 17 years, OPEC-reported production declines, and Novorossiysk operating below capacity. International coverage notes ruble strengthening as a separate factor reducing the ruble value of oil revenues, independent of the war's physical impact. The Western price cap of $44.10 and the pre-war Urals price of around $45 are cited as benchmarks to contextualize current price levels.
Where reporting differs
One headline frames the revenue decline as 17% over the first nine months of the year, while another cites a 22% drop for September monthly revenues. The figures reflect different time periods rather than a substantive conflict in the underlying data.
Background
On April 8, Urals reached $113.89 per barrel, the highest since 2013, amid Middle East supply disruptions; by late September it was still above $92. Before the conflict, Urals traded around $45 per barrel on FOB terms out of Primorsk. The Western price cap on Russian oil is set at $44.10 per barrel, well below current market prices. In August, OPEC data showed Russian oil production fell more than 5.6% to 8.718 million barrels per day, down from 9.240 million in January. Russia lowered its oil and gas production and export forecast for 2026 last month, with the revised oil production forecast at the lowest in 17 years. The Black Sea port of Novorossiysk has been operating below capacity due to security risks from Ukrainian attacks and a shortage of tankers. During January–August 2026, the ruble was on average 9% stronger against the dollar than in the same period of 2025, reducing the ruble-denominated value of dollar-priced oil. The average oil price used for Russian tax calculations rose to $66.70 per barrel in January–August from $59.12 a year earlier.