Ukraine says strikes have disabled more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity

Why it matters

If accurate, the 51% figure would represent damage to the majority of Russia's oil refining capacity, with direct consequences for both the Russian economy and the fuel supply of its armed forces. The assessment comes from a party to the conflict and is therefore not independently verified, but specific named refineries, halt dates and capacity details give the claim operational substance. Combined with reported tripling of Ukrainian long-range drone production in 2026 and a stated plan to expand further, the announcement points to an ongoing campaign against Russian energy infrastructure rather than a one-off action.

What happened

Ukraine's Ministry of Defence announced that long-range strikes by the Security and Defence Forces of Ukraine have put more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity out of service. Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara presented the assessment, which he said was based on intelligence and analysis by the General Staff and the ministry, and described the strikes as a systematic effort to reduce Russia's military-economic potential.

The ministry named recently struck facilities: the Moscow, Yaroslavl, KINEF, Perm, Ilysky, Saratov and Syzran oil refineries, and the NOVATEK complex in Ust-Luga. According to the cited reporting, the Moscow refinery (Gazprom Neft) suspended crude processing on 21 September after fires on its primary distillation units; the Syzran refinery was halted on 15 September with damage to the CDU-6 unit (17,100 metric tons per day); the Saratov refinery was halted on 11 September after earlier strikes on 2 August and 8 September; and the Perm refinery halted operations following a 25 September attack. The ministry said long-range strike drones remain a separate priority and that Ukraine tripled their production and procurement in 2026, with plans to scale up further.

How Ukrainian sources describe it

All sourced coverage is Ukrainian and centres the 51% figure on Defence Minister Khmara, presenting the strikes as a deliberate, systematic effort to erode Russia's military-economic potential and ability to sustain its troop groupings. The articles substantiate the claim with named refineries, halt dates and capacity figures, and link the campaign to the reported tripling of Ukrainian long-range drone output. Intensified strikes on Russian oil refineries are framed, citing President Zelensky, as a direct response to Russian mass attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

Where reporting differs

The 51% figure originates solely with Ukraine's Ministry of Defence and is based on its own intelligence, the General Staff and the ministry's analysts; it is not independently verified. Some article headlines render it more loosely as 'over 50%'. The underlying claim comes from a party to the conflict.

Background

Russia's refineries supply the gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel used by both the country's economy and its armed forces. On 28 September it became known that Putin had classified data on trade in oil products, which the coverage frames as a response to the damage to the refining sector. On 1 October, Donald Trump publicly described the rate of destruction of Russian oil refineries as 'alarming'. President Zelensky has linked the campaign against Russian refineries to Russian mass attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.