ISW: Russia has launched its winter energy strike campaign against Ukraine earlier than usual
The Institute for the Study of War published an analysis on 4 October assessing Russia's renewed campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. ISW says Russia is beginning the campaign earlier than usual, before Ukraine can develop effective countermeasures against Russian ballistic missiles and jet drones, and frames the escalation as part of a shift toward trying to force Ukraine to capitulate through long-range strikes this winter.
Key points
- ISW published its analysis on 4 October.
- Russia is beginning its campaign of strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure earlier than usual, before Ukraine can develop countermeasures against Russian ballistic missiles and jet drones.
- Russia has carried out a similar strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure every winter since 2022–2023.
- Russia's Ministry of Defence announced on 4 October an intensification of strikes on Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast and other regions, framing them as a response to alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian objects since June 2026.
- ISW assesses that the strikes are intended to make life unbearable for Ukraine's civilian population and force capitulation to Russian demands.
- ISW says Ukraine's 2026 battlefield successes appear to be pushing Vladimir Putin to shift from battlefield advances toward compelling capitulation through a long-range strike campaign in winter 2026–2027.
- Ukraine's Ministry of Defence says more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been put out of operation by Ukrainian long-range operations.
Why it matters
ISW links the earlier start of Russia's energy strike campaign to a strategic shift by Vladimir Putin: with Ukraine's battlefield successes in 2026 complicating Russia's original theory of victory, the Kremlin is turning toward trying to force capitulation by making life unbearable for Ukrainian civilians through long-range strikes on energy infrastructure. The campaign, framed by Russia's Ministry of Defence as retaliation for alleged Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian targets, raises the stakes of the coming winter 2026–2027 for civilians and for Ukraine's energy supply. It comes against a backdrop in which Ukraine says it has already put more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity out of operation.
What happened
On 4 October, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published an analysis assessing Russia's renewed campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter 2026–2027. ISW found that Russia has begun the campaign earlier than in previous winters, before Ukraine can develop effective countermeasures against Russian ballistic missiles and jet drones, both of which have already caused significant damage. On the same day, Russia's Ministry of Defence announced an intensification of strikes on infrastructure in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast and other regions, presenting them as a response to alleged Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian objects since June 2026. ISW assesses that the campaign is aimed at making life unbearable for Ukraine's civilian population to force capitulation to Russian demands, and that Ukraine's 2026 battlefield successes appear to be pushing Vladimir Putin to shift away from battlefield advances toward a long-range strike strategy for the coming winter. Russia's Ministry of Defence has previously, in September, threatened to intensify strikes on Kyiv after Ukrainian attacks on Moscow, and at the end of August announced preparations for massive strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. On the night of 30 September, Russian strikes hit energy facilities in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Donetsk oblasts, leaving some subscribers without electricity. Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky has said that Russia has moved to massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. According to Ukraine's Ministry of Defence, Ukrainian long-range operations have put more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity out of operation.
Background
Russia has carried out a strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure every winter since 2022–2023, with Russian ballistic missiles and jet drones causing significant damage. In September, Russia's Ministry of Defence threatened to intensify strikes on Kyiv following Ukrainian attacks on Moscow, and at the end of August Russia announced preparations for massive strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. On the night of 30 September, Russian strikes hit energy facilities in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy and Donetsk oblasts, leaving some subscribers without electricity. Ukrainian Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky has stated that Russia has moved to massive attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.