Russia launches major combined strike on Ukraine's energy grid, opening 2026–2027 winter campaign: ISW
On September 30, Russia carried out a large-scale combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, primarily targeting Kyiv and the Kyiv region. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed the attack as the start of Russia's 2026–2027 winter campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine's energy security and forcing capitulation before serious peace negotiations. Emergency and scheduled power outages were introduced across multiple oblasts.
Key points
- On September 30, Russia struck Ukraine's energy infrastructure with a combined missile and drone attack, the first large-scale combined strike since the previous heating season ended.
- ISW assessed the strike as the opening of Russia's 2026–2027 winter campaign aimed at forcing Ukraine to capitulate and undermining any serious peace negotiations with American partners.
- President Zelensky said the main target was the energy infrastructure of Kyiv and the Kyiv region.
- Prime Minister Koretsky said missiles and drones hit energy facilities in Kyiv, the Kyiv region, and other regions on the night of September 30.
- DTEK reported damage to thermal and hydroelectric power stations and a high-voltage substation; facility names were withheld for security reasons.
- Emergency power outages were applied for the first time since winter in Kyiv and the Kyiv region on the evening of September 30.
- Outages were also applied in Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts, with Ukrenergo announcing hourly outage schedules for October 1.
Why it matters
ISW assesses the September 30 strike as the deliberate start of a Russian winter campaign designed to break Ukraine's energy security, degrade civilian morale, and force capitulation before any serious peace negotiations with American partners get underway. The combined attack on thermal, hydroelectric, and high-voltage facilities — followed by emergency and scheduled outages across multiple oblasts — signals that the threat to Ukraine's power grid has returned at scale ahead of the heating season.
What happened
On September 30, Russia launched a major combined missile and drone strike primarily targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian President Zelensky said the main target was the energy sector of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Prime Minister Koretsky said missiles and drones hit energy facilities in Kyiv, the Kyiv region, and other regions during the night, and described it as the first large-scale combined attack since the end of the previous heating season. DTEK reported that Russia struck thermal and hydroelectric power stations and a high-voltage substation, with the names of damaged facilities withheld for security reasons. In the evening, emergency power outages were applied for the first time since winter in Kyiv and the Kyiv region, and outages were also imposed in the Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts. Ukrenergo announced hourly power outage schedules for consumers in certain regions for October 1.
Background
ISW assessed that Ukraine's battlefield successes in 2026 may have prompted President Putin to shift to a modified theory of victory built around long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities rather than gains on the ground. According to Prime Minister Koretsky, Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure had been nearly continuous since summer, but the September 30 strike was the first combined, large-scale attack of its kind since the previous heating season ended.