Institute for the Study of War
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American think tank founded in 2007 and based in Washington, D.C. It focuses on the study of armed conflict and security policy. The organization publishes frequent battlefield assessments, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine, that are widely cited by Western media and governments.
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ISW: Russia begins winter energy strike campaign earlier than usual to pressure Ukraine into capitulation
The Institute for the Study of War assessed on October 4 that Russia has started its seasonal campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure earlier than in previous years, ahead of the 2026–2027 heating season. ISW said the goal is to make civilian life unbearable and force Ukraine to capitulate, and that the Russian Ministry of Defence's claims of retaliating for Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian objects are pretextual. The assessment comes as Russia has already struck energy facilities in multiple oblasts and bridges in Kyiv repeatedly in early October.
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Russian drones hit Kyiv's Pivdennyi Bridge for fourth time in a day, paralysing cross-river traffic
Russian forces struck the Pivdennyi (Southern) Bridge in Kyiv with drones around 5:00 a.m. on 2 October 2026, the fourth hit on the bridge in roughly 24 hours and part of a wave of attacks that fully closed the bridge and restricted traffic on the Paton and Metro bridges. The overnight strike also hit a 25-storey residential building in the Darnytskyi district, killing one person and injuring two. The closures caused a major transport collapse across the city, with large traffic jams, rerouted buses and trolleybuses, and a Kyiv Defense Council decision to tighten bridge rules during air-raid alerts.
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Ukrainian drone strike halts Moscow oil refinery on day of State Duma vote
On the night of 20 September, Ukrainian forces struck the Gazpromneft-Moscow refinery in the Kapotnya district of Moscow with a combined drone and missile attack, setting both primary crude distillation units ablaze and forcing a full halt of oil processing. Ukraine's General Staff says cumulative strikes have now knocked out more than 45% of Russia's designed oil refining capacity. The attack fell on the day of Russia's State Duma election, with Moscow authorities not activating air raid sirens or SMS warnings, an omission analysts at the Institute for the Study of War linked to a priority on voter turnout over civilian safety.