Ukraine's intelligence warns Russia may test new 800-km ballistic missile by year-end

Why it matters

The reported 800-km range would extend Russian ballistic reach well beyond the official 500-km range of the Iskander-M, bringing western Ukrainian targets deeper into the threat zone of Russian missile tests. Ukraine has a documented shortage of Patriot interceptors — the main system able to counter ballistic missiles — and producing or licensing them is a slow process, leaving air-defense capacity strained. Ukrainian intelligence frames the missile program as one element of a wider Russian strategy: raising missile output, intensifying attacks to trigger a socio-economic crisis, waging a war of attrition, and seeking to drag Belarus into the war.

What happened

At a session of the Ukraine-NATO Inter-Parliamentary Council, Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said Russia plans to carry out final tests of a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 km by the end of 2026. He warned that during the test launches Russia may attempt to strike targets in western Ukraine. Skibitsky also said Russia is increasing the intensity of missile and drone attacks against Ukraine with the aim of provoking a socio-economic crisis, and is working to expand both the volume of ballistic-missile production and the range of such missiles.

Ukraine's air-defense strain was a recurring thread in the intelligence assessment: HUR says Ukraine faces a shortage of PAC-2 interceptors for American Patriot systems, which are needed to shoot down ballistic missiles. On the same day, Germany announced an urgent transfer of PAC-2 interceptors for Patriot from Bundeswehr stocks. US President Donald Trump was initially reported as willing to allow Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptors but has since been reconsidering such a license, and launching that production is a lengthy process.

How Ukrainian sources describe it

Ukrainian-language coverage leads with the HUR warning and centres the threat on western Ukraine. It foregrounds Ukraine's air-defense vulnerability, stressing the shortage of Patriot interceptors and the slow pace of producing or licensing them domestically. The reporting connects the new missile to Russia's broader campaign of attrition: intensified missile and drone strikes aimed at triggering a socio-economic crisis, continued Black Sea blockade, and efforts to draw Belarus into the war.

Background

The Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile has an official range of 500 km; experts estimate it could reach up to 700 km with a lightened warhead — meaning the 800-km system under discussion would mark a further increase in reach. At the start of 2026, Russia struck the Lviv region with Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missiles, an earlier example of longer-range systems being used against western Ukraine. HUR says Russia lost 43,000 soldiers in August 2026 while conscripting only 39,000, and that the Russian General Staff views intensified mobilisation as the main path to fully occupying the Donbas and seizing the strategic initiative. HUR head Oleh Ivashchenko has assessed that, despite economic strain, Russia may have enough resources to continue the war through 2027 and 2028 and that exhausting Russia will require cooperation with partners.