Latvian president warns most NATO states could not repel Russian missile attack; allies cite hybrid-strike risk
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs told The Guardian in Washington that most NATO countries would not be able to repel a Russian missile attack if the conflict expands and that Europe is falling behind Ukraine's drone and air-warfare technology. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys separately cited intelligence on Russian hybrid-strike planning against Ukraine's allies, while the US has considered but not agreed to transfer Patriot production licences to Ukraine and Europe.
Key points
- Rinkēvičs said in a Guardian interview in Washington that Europe is not keeping pace with drone and air-warfare technology developed in Ukraine.
- He said most NATO countries would struggle to repel a Russian missile attack if the conflict widens.
- He called Patriot one of the best available air-defence systems, while Ukraine and Europe face delays in interceptor deliveries.
- The US has considered transferring Patriot production licences to Ukraine and Europe, but no agreement has been reached; technical licensing issues remain.
- Polish PM Donald Tusk said intelligence points to Russian plans for hybrid strikes against countries supporting Ukraine in the coming months.
- Lithuanian FM Kęstutis Budrys said Lithuania has similar data on Russian preparation of hybrid attacks on Ukraine's allies.
- Trump, asked about Tusk's warnings, said: 'I think they've already been attacking allies of Ukraine. They've been attacking allies of Ukraine for about five years.'
- A Trump meeting with European leaders is expected during the UN General Assembly in New York on 22–28 September.
Why it matters
A NATO head of state has publicly stated that the alliance could not repel a Russian missile attack, sharpening questions about Article 5 credibility at a moment when allied intelligence services are publicly flagging the risk of Russian hybrid strikes on NATO territory. The assessment also reframes Ukraine's battlefield — especially drone warfare — as a technological benchmark NATO is failing to match, while delays in Patriot interceptor deliveries and the unresolved question of US Patriot production licences point to longer-term air-defence capacity problems for both Ukraine and Europe.
What happened
Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said in a Guardian interview conducted in Washington that Europe is not keeping up with the development of drone and air-warfare technologies in Ukraine, where he said technological progress in drone warfare is happening at a 'lightning' pace. He warned that most NATO countries would not be able to repel a Russian missile attack if the conflict expands, and that a Russian decision to launch several missiles at European territory would today be a serious challenge for many countries. Rinkēvičs noted that air-defence, drone-defence and missile-defence systems face serious problems, and that Ukraine, Europe and NATO all share these problems. He said Patriot remains one of the best air-defence systems, even as Ukraine and European allies experience delays in deliveries of critical interceptor missiles, and he said discussions on transferring Patriot production licences to Ukraine and Europe are continuing but face technical licensing difficulties. Rinkēvičs also said he believes Russia will intensify mobilisation in the coming months after local elections, use the winter to advance in Ukraine, and try to deter countries supporting Kyiv from continuing their support. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk separately said intelligence indicates Russian plans for hybrid strikes against countries supporting Ukraine in the coming months, and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Lithuania has similar data on Russian preparation of hybrid attacks on Ukraine's allies. Donald Trump, asked about Tusk's concerns, replied that Russia has already been attacking Ukraine's allies for about five years. A meeting between Trump and European leaders is expected during the UN General Assembly in New York on 22–28 September.
Where reporting differs
Sources differ on Rinkēvičs's timeline for when current European air-warfare preparations could become outdated: one source reports him saying by mid-2027, while others report the same remark as by the middle of next year (mid-2026).
Background
A US Congressional Budget Office analysis cited in the reporting estimates that the United States used nearly two-thirds of its stocks of critical interceptors during a war with Iran and that replenishing those stocks could take at least five years. The US has considered transferring Patriot production licences to Ukraine and Europe, but no agreement has been reached and Rinkēvičs says technical licensing issues remain. Belarusian armed forces have held large-scale exercises near Lithuania, and Germany is preparing hospitals while Lithuania has updated evacuation plans and NATO troops are conducting exercises in the Baltic region in response to perceived Russian threats.