Ukraine's air-defense missile stocks nearly exhausted as Russia scales up drone and ballistic missile output

Why it matters

With interceptor stocks nearly depleted and large new US PAC-3 deliveries unlikely, Ukraine faces an immediate air-defense capability gap entering the winter bombardment season. Russia's simultaneous scaling up of jet-drone and ballistic-missile production compounds the pressure, making the cost and availability of interceptors a strategic bottleneck. The shift toward European-supplied SAMP/T batteries and the joint Freyja project signals a move to cheaper, mass-produced alternatives that can be sustained against high-volume attacks.

What happened

Throughout August, Russia fired upgraded jet-powered Geran drones at Ukraine every day, with monthly totals rising from 350 in June to 2,800 in August according to Ukrainian Air Force data reported by the BBC. The drones, powered mostly by Chinese-sourced turbojet engines and produced at an estimated rate of 3,000 per month, can cruise at over 300 mph and outnumbered older, slower models in five nightly attacks during the month. Russia has simultaneously scaled ballistic missile production to about 100 per month, and BBC Verify documented complex attacks involving hundreds of drones and missiles roughly once a week. A wave of attacks on 1 September killed at least 12 people and injured 20, including six railway workers at a depot in Kyiv, according to President Zelensky.

Against this backdrop, Ukraine's PAC-3 stocks for Patriot systems and AIM-120 and AIM-9 missiles for F-16s are nearly exhausted, and large-scale new US PAC-3 deliveries are unlikely because American stockpiles have been depleted by the US war with Iran. Ukraine is turning to European alternatives: it expects to receive several older Franco-Italian SAMP/T batteries with Aster missiles by the end of 2026 and eight new SAMP/T NG complexes next year. A joint European-Ukrainian project called Freyja, based on Ukraine's short-range ballistic missile FP-7 and supported by 12 European defense companies including Thales, Leonardo, Diehl and Saab, aims to produce a significantly cheaper, mass-produced interceptor interoperable with NATO-standard radars. Germany is separately planning licensed production of up to 200 PAC-2 missiles per year, some of which could be transferred to Ukraine with NATO consent. Four Ukrainian companies have also begun testing missiles able to shoot down the new Geran models, with Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara tasking them to produce thousands of units as quickly as possible.

Where reporting differs

French military sources claim the Aster missile outperforms the Patriot in some respects, while other reporting frames PAC-3 as the current standard whose export version costs roughly $7 million per missile. The two assessments reflect differing national views on the relative capabilities of the systems rather than directly conflicting numbers.

Background

The upgraded Geran drones are powered by turbojet engines sourced mostly from China, with some components manufactured in Russia using smuggled Western 3D printers. Russia has also fielded a larger drone called Banderole that increasingly resembles a low-cost cruise missile. The Aster missile uses an explosive warhead detonating near the target, whereas PAC-3 relies on kinetic hit-to-kill interception. Earlier in 2025, Ukraine was intercepting 94% of long-range drones according to Zelensky, but the new jet-powered models are faster and harder to bring down, and Conflict Armament Research notes they carry much smaller warheads and are more susceptible to jamming than cruise missiles.