Ukraine says Russia is producing arms near maximum capacity
Ukrainian intelligence assesses that Russia is operating close to maximum arms-production capacity, producing about 110 ballistic missiles per month while maintaining selected aircraft deliveries and repairs. Russia still depends on imported components obtained through grey-market trade and smuggling, leaving its production exposed to supply-chain constraints.
Key points
- Russia produces about 110 ballistic missiles per month, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
- Its military may launch up to 100 ballistic missiles per month.
- Russia relies on imported electronics, modern optics and other Western-made components.
- Moscow uses grey-market imports and smuggling to obtain parts in circumvention of sanctions.
- Russia can supply up to 15 Su-34 aircraft and 12 Su-35C fighters per year.
- At the end of 2025, Russia reportedly had about 125 Su-34s, 135–140 Su-35Cs and nearly 20 Su-57s.
- Twenty-two of the 79 companies involved in producing the Su-35C are not covered by sanctions imposed by any sanctions-coalition country.
Why it matters
Russia's high production capacity could help it replenish its armed forces and sustain attacks on Ukraine. At the same time, reliance on foreign components and sanctions-evading supply routes leaves production vulnerable to disruption. The military's operational aircraft availability also varies by type because Russia produces and repairs selected models only.
What happened
Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence said Russia is working close to maximum arms-production capacity and producing about 110 ballistic missiles per month. The service estimates the country's industry can deliver up to 15 Su-34s and 12 Su-35Cs annually. Moscow is nevertheless dependent on foreign components, including imported electronics and modern optics, which it obtains through grey-market imports and smuggling in circumvention of sanctions. Russia does not serially produce new Su-24M, Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft and instead repairs existing ones.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian reporting emphasizes Russia's sustained ballistic-missile output, continued production and repair of selected aircraft, and reliance on foreign components. It also highlights losses at Borisoglebsk airport and reports that the struck Su-34 aircraft were equipped with bombs and ready for further strikes on Ukraine.
Where reporting differs
The number of Su-34 aircraft struck at Borisoglebsk airport differs between reports. LIGA.net reported that six Su-34M aircraft were hit, while ZN.UA reported that four were destroyed and two damaged.
Background
At the end of 2025, Ukraine estimated that Russia had about 125 Su-34 aircraft, 135–140 Su-35C fighters and nearly 20 Su-57s. Russia had 140–145 Su-30M2, Su-30SM and Su-30SM2 aircraft in total, a figure that covered the overall fleet rather than the number available for combat missions. Reported Su-34 deliveries were eight aircraft in 2022, 11 in 2023 and 12–14 in 2024. In August, Ukrainian intelligence published information on 79 companies involved in producing the Su-35C.