Russia expanding carbon-fiber facility that could boost drone output by 78%
Russia's Alabuga-Volokno plant in Tatarstan is being expanded to produce an additional 500 tons of aerospace-grade carbon fiber per year by 2029, according to internal Rosatom documents collected by the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation. Experts cited in the documents estimate the extra carbon fiber would enable production of roughly 28,000 additional long-range strike drones per year, an estimated 78% increase over current capacity of more than 36,000 Shahed/Geran-type kamikaze drones annually. The Russian government approved Rosatom's plans in May; satellite imagery from May through August shows land being cleared and foundations prepared for the new line, scheduled for completion in 2027.
Key points
- Alabuga-Volokno plans an additional 500 tons of aerospace-grade carbon fiber per year by 2029
- Experts estimate the extra carbon fiber could support around 28,000 additional strike drones per year, a ~78% increase
- Russia currently produces more than 36,000 Shahed/Geran-type kamikaze drones per year
- The Russian government approved Rosatom's expansion plans in May; construction is targeted for completion in 2027
- Alabuga-Volokno and parent Umatex Group (Rosatom) are under US, UK and other Western sanctions
- The documents were verified by the Ukrainian government and the US House Select Committee on China
- Russia's stated drone targets are 130,000 per year by 2030 and 350,000 by 2035
Why it matters
Alabuga-Volokno is the only Russian producer of the carbon fiber used in long-range drone airframes, so this expansion would act as a force multiplier for Russia's strike-drone output. If the expert estimates hold, Russia could add about 28,000 Shahed/Geran-type kamikaze drones per year on top of the current 36,000, a roughly 78% increase that would intensify mass attacks on Ukrainian cities. The project is moving forward despite sanctions on Alabuga-Volokno and its parent Umatex Group, and fits Rosatom's longer-term targets of 130,000 drones per year by 2030 and 350,000 by 2035.
What happened
According to internal Rosatom documents obtained by the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, the Alabuga-Volokno plant in Tatarstan is being expanded to add 500 tons of aerospace-grade carbon fiber per year by 2029. The new line, whose main product will be UMT42S-3K carbon fiber for the aerospace industry, received Russian government approval in May and is scheduled for completion in 2027. Satellite imagery from May through July shows land adjacent to the existing plant being cleared; weapons expert David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security said August imagery shows foundations being prepared. Rosatom's stated reasons are import substitution of dual-use products and meeting demand from Russian aviation and defense industries. Experts cited in the documents estimate the additional carbon fiber would enable production of about 28,000 additional long-range strike drones per year, roughly a 78% increase on current capacity of more than 36,000 Shahed/Geran-type kamikaze drones annually. The authenticity of the documents was verified by the Ukrainian government and the US House Select Committee on China. In early 2026, the Chinese state corporation Jilin Chemical Fiber Group delivered 46 tons of carbon-fiber chemical precursors to Alabuga-Volokno disguised in shipping documents as other goods. Rosatom says the company and its subsidiaries operate in full compliance with applicable law; the Chinese Embassy in Washington said it had no knowledge of the Russian expansion plans and that China strictly controls dual-use exports under the law.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
All supplied sources are Ukrainian outlets, and they uniformly frame the expansion as a direct threat to Ukrainian cities, emphasizing terms like 'kamikaze drones' and 'attacks on Ukrainian cities.' Coverage repeatedly credits the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation with obtaining the internal Rosatom documents and highlights the magnitude of the increase — 78%, 28,000 additional drones, 'nearly 80%.' Several pieces frame Alabuga primarily as a 'drone factory' rather than a carbon-fiber facility.
How international sources describe it
No international outlets are present in the supplied article set; the international framing here is built on Politico's reporting as relayed through Ukrainian coverage. That material gives more weight to expert commentary from David Albright and Stacey Pettyjohn and to the Chinese angle — the Jilin Chemical Fiber Group shipment and the Chinese Embassy's denial — themes that are absent or minor in some of the more narrowly focused Ukrainian headlines. It also situates the expansion within Russia's broader national 'Unmanned Aviation Systems' targets of 130,000 drones per year by 2030 and 350,000 by 2035.
Where reporting differs
Sources differ on the timing of the disguised 46-ton Chinese chemical-precursor shipment to Alabuga-Volokno: most accounts place it in early 2026, while one variant dates it to early 2024. There is also variation in how the drones are labeled — Ukrainian-language sources consistently say 'Shaheds,' while relayed international variants use 'Shahed/Geran-type' or simply 'Geran,' and some headlines describe them specifically as 'jet-powered strike drones' tied to the carbon-fiber expansion.
Background
The internal Rosatom documents were collected by the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation and verified by the Ukrainian government and the US House Select Committee on China. Rosatom's official rationale for the expansion, per the documents, is import substitution of dual-use products and meeting demand from Russian aviation and defense industries. Satellite imagery from May through July and again in August (per David Albright) shows land being cleared and foundations prepared. The Ukrainian OSINT project Dnipro Osint has reported underground drone-production facilities at the Alabuga special economic zone, with around 42,000 m² already built. In September 2025, UMATEX CEO Oleksandr Tyunin died by suicide in the Moscow region; a hunting rifle and a note citing long-term depression were found nearby.