Russia's 2027 budget draft sharply raises military spending while cutting social expenditures
Russia's government submitted its 2027–2028 federal budget draft to the State Duma on 30 September, with direct military spending planned at 17 trillion rubles (around $205 billion) — more than a quarter above current targets and equal to 6.9% of GDP and 35% of all budget expenditures. Social policy, healthcare, education and economic spending are to be cut or frozen in real terms, while state media reportedly received instructions not to highlight the military surge.
Key points
- The Russian government submitted the 2027–2028 federal budget draft to the State Duma on 30 September.
- Direct military spending in 2027 is planned at 17 trillion rubles (about $205 billion), more than a quarter above current targets, according to Bloomberg.
- Reuters reports the 2027 "national defense" allocation at 17.1 trillion rubles — 6.9% of GDP, 35% of all expenditures, and 27% above the parameters in the current budget law.
- Planned direct military spending edges down slightly in 2028 to 16.6 trillion rubles.
- The Carnegie Center's Alexandra Prokopenko estimates the wider security bloc — Interior Ministry, Rosgvardia and special services — at 44% of the budget.
- Social policy spending is to be cut by 7%, education by 6%, healthcare by 6.8% and the national economy by 7.4%; spending on state-controlled media is set to grow 43.2%; 4.6 trillion rubles is earmarked for debt servicing, 21.6% more than in the current budget.
- State media and Kremlin-loyal outlets received instructions not to report on the sharp rise in military spending, instead emphasizing social obligations and comparing Russia's deficit with France, the UK and Germany.
Why it matters
The draft formalizes a multi-year commitment to record-high military spending — over 6% of GDP and more than a third of all expenditure — financed by cutting social programs and raising debt service costs, raising the fiscal and human cost of the war. The simultaneous gag order to state media signals that the figures are politically sensitive and points to an information strategy aimed at offsetting the domestic impact of the spending shift.
What happened
On 30 September, the Russian government submitted its draft federal budget for 2027–2028 to the State Duma. The document sets direct military spending for 2027 at 17 trillion rubles (approximately $205 billion) — more than a quarter above the levels set out in the current budget law. According to Reuters, the broader "national defense" line reaches 17.1 trillion rubles, equal to 6.9% of GDP and 35% of all budget expenditure, and 27% higher than the parameters of the existing budget. Planned direct military spending eases in 2028 to 16.6 trillion rubles. Alexandra Prokopenko of the Carnegie Center in Berlin estimates that the share of all spending on the security bloc — including the Interior Ministry, Rosgvardia and the special services — comes to 44% of the budget.
Social and civilian lines are reduced to make room. The draft cuts social policy spending by 7%, education by 6%, healthcare by 6.8% and the national economy by 7.4%, while increasing funding for state-controlled media by 43.2% and earmarking 4.6 trillion rubles for debt servicing — 21.6% more than under existing plans. The overall deficit is projected at 2% of GDP, against a backdrop of falling oil and gas revenues.
Alongside the fiscal shift, the Kremlin moved to control how the numbers are reported. Russian state media and Kremlin-loyal outlets received instructions — obtained by Meduza — not to report on the sharp rise in military spending, to avoid "self-initiative" and to draw only on government press releases and pro-government experts (from the Financial University, RANEPA and HSE). Propagandists were told to emphasize the state's social obligations, pensions, and the construction of schools and kindergartens, and to compare Russia's budget deficit with figures from France, the UK and Germany. Russian state media received instructions not to report on the sharp increase in military spending in the 2027 budget draft.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian-language coverage frames the budget as the price of the war. One article leads with the planned record military outlays and the human and social cost inside Russia, while the other centers on the Kremlin's gag order to state media. Both highlight the gap between Russia's official social rhetoric — poverty reduction, support for citizens — and the fiscal reality of prioritizing military spending and information control.
Where reporting differs
Independent investigators' estimates of Russian military deaths diverge: open-source work by BBC and Mediazona has confirmed nearly 259,000 named dead as of September 2026, while inheritance-case calculations point to a total above 352,000 killed.
Background
Since 2021 Russia has indexed its official poverty line to "official" rather than real inflation, lowering the threshold to 17,700 rubles per month in 2026 (around $190) — far below the 43,800 rubles Russians themselves estimate they need to survive, a figure that would put more than 59% of the population below the poverty line. Rosstat has stopped publishing absolute numbers of people below the poverty line and frozen total population data at 146.1 million as of January 2025, while Vladimir Putin has formally reported fulfilment of the "May decree" to reduce poverty below 7%.