Russian elites reportedly move assets abroad over fears of new mobilization after Duma elections

Why it matters

The reported anxiety inside Russia's elite suggests that a new conscription wave is a credible possibility even as the Kremlin publicly rejects the idea. A call-up of hundreds of thousands could reshape the scale of the war, while the use of a digital military register linked to state databases would make evasion far harder than in 2022. The gap between Putin's denials and European intelligence assessments highlights how unreliable official Russian statements remain on the war's manpower needs.

What happened

On September 18, 2026, Bloomberg published an article based on documents and sources familiar with the situation reporting that parts of the Russian elite and military commissariat staff fear a new large-scale mobilization after the State Duma elections. Some officials have allegedly tried to open bank accounts abroad, move assets out of Russia, and advised friends and relatives to leave the country. Recruitment officers at army enlistment points are reported to be doing the same.

A representative of a European security service told Bloomberg Russia plans to mobilize about 300,000 more men by the end of the year, though European officials cautioned that no final decision has been made. Putin has publicly denied that a new mobilization is being prepared. Bloomberg noted that unlike the September 2022 partial mobilization, a new wave could proceed without a separate public declaration, drawing on a digital Unified Military Register linked to tax, police, medical, real estate and border control databases.

By one Bloomberg analyst's estimate, the Russian army has been losing on average about 33,000 killed and wounded a month since the start of 2026 while advancing on average only 104 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory, and from May to August 2026 captured about 155 square kilometers in total. A Moscow-based source said weekly Russian fatalities at the front are around 1,000 and that the quality of new contract recruits is extremely low. The report comes against a backdrop of growing outflows of Russians to neighboring states such as Georgia and Armenia before the elections.

Where reporting differs

Putin publicly denies preparing a new mobilization wave, while a European security official says Russia plans to conscript up to 300,000 more people by year-end and a Moscow-based source describes the volunteer reserve as exhausted. Bloomberg itself notes that concerns about a new mobilization do not mean a decision to hold one has already been made.

Background

Russia's previous mobilization in September 2022 prompted thousands of Russians to flee the country. Since then the Kremlin has built digital conscription infrastructure while restricting exit routes. The full-scale war against Ukraine is now in its fifth year as of the publication date.