Estonian intelligence: Russian weekly losses exceed 10,000 for third week running
Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Centre, told a briefing at the Estonian Ministry of Defense that Russian armed forces losses in the war against Ukraine have exceeded 10,000 servicemembers per week for the third consecutive week, outpacing recruitment. He also outlined ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and a series of long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil, chemical, drone and military facilities deep inside Russia.
Key points
- Russian weekly battlefield losses exceeded 10,000 servicemembers for the third consecutive week, according to Colonel Ants Kiviselg.
- Average daily Russian losses were around 1,600, bringing the week to slightly more than 11,000.
- Russia continues to lose more servicemembers on the battlefield than it can recruit, Kiviselg said.
- Ukraine publicly disclosed data on its counteroffensive in the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast for the first time, reporting about 85 square kilometers of territory liberated and cleared.
- Operations in Donetsk Oblast remain ongoing, according to the briefing.
- Kiviselg listed Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities in Krasnodar Krai, Saratov and Samara oblasts, and in Tatarstan, as well as the port of Makhachkala on the Caspian Sea.
- Strikes also hit chemical plants in Perm Krai and Volgograd, a drone production factory in Rostov Oblast, airfields in Rostov Oblast, and air defense systems and long-range drone storage sites in Rostov and Oryol oblasts.
- The IEA estimates Russian oil refining capacity will remain about 30% below pre-war levels over the next 18 months.
- Estonian intelligence previously noted that Ukraine has reached Russian factories at a distance of nearly 3,000 kilometers.
- Kiviselg said growing domestic problems inside Russia could affect the September State Duma elections.
Why it matters
For the third week in a row, Russian battlefield losses are outpacing recruitment, signaling sustained manpower strain on Moscow. Ukraine's first public disclosure of figures from its Lyman-direction counteroffensive provides rare official confirmation of territorial gains. At the same time, long-range Ukrainian strikes are degrading Russian oil refining capacity and reaching targets deep inside Russia, with the IEA estimating Russian refining will stay about 30% below pre-war levels for the next 18 months. Estonian intelligence also suggested that war-related economic strain on ordinary Russians could influence the September State Duma elections.
What happened
Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Centre, briefed journalists at the Estonian Ministry of Defense on the course of the war. He reported that Russian armed forces losses have exceeded 10,000 servicemembers per week for three consecutive weeks, with average daily losses of around 1,600, and that Russia continues to lose more personnel on the battlefield than it can recruit. Kiviselg also said Ukraine had for the first time publicly disclosed data on its counteroffensive in the Lyman direction in Donetsk Oblast, where approximately 85 square kilometers of territory were liberated and cleared, and that operations there remain ongoing. He then catalogued a wave of long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory: oil facilities in Krasnodar Krai, Saratov and Samara oblasts and in the Republic of Tatarstan; the port of Makhachkala on the Caspian Sea; chemical plants in Perm Krai and Volgograd; a drone production factory in Rostov Oblast; airfields in Rostov Oblast; and air defense systems and long-range drone storage sites in Rostov and Oryol oblasts. Damage assessment is still under way, but Ukrainian strikes likely disabled or damaged some aircraft and helicopters. Kiviselg cited an IEA report finding that the condition of Russian oil refineries has worsened under Ukrainian strikes while sanctions impede repairs, and noted that the agency expects Russian refining capacity to remain about 30% below pre-war levels over the next 18 months. He added that Estonian intelligence had previously observed Ukraine reaching Russian factories at a distance of nearly 3,000 kilometers, and suggested that war-related strain on ordinary Russians could affect the upcoming State Duma elections.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Both Ukrainian sources — a media outlet (Європейська правда) and the national news agency (Укрінформ) — lead their coverage with the Estonian intelligence assessment of Russian losses exceeding 10,000 per week, foregrounding the manpower toll on Russia. The Ukrainian coverage treats the Estonian briefing as an authoritative external confirmation of trends affecting Russia, including battlefield losses and the impact of long-range Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and military infrastructure.
Background
The briefing was delivered by Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Centre, at the Estonian Ministry of Defense. Estonian intelligence has previously noted Ukraine's ability to strike Russian facilities at distances approaching 3,000 kilometers.