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Russia mass-launches repurposed training missiles at Ukraine, saving Iskanders for winter

The Russian army has sharply increased its use of RM-48U missiles — originally intended as targets for air-defense crews — against Ukraine, with these 'target missiles' now accounting for the majority of Russian ballistic and hypersonic strikes in July and early August. Ukrainian intelligence and analysts say the shift is depleting Ukrainian interceptor stockpiles while Russia hoards higher-end missiles like Iskander, KN-23, Zircon and Kinzhal for a winter campaign.

Key points

  • Of 158 ballistic and hypersonic missiles Russia launched in July — the highest monthly total since the start of the full-scale invasion — 87 were RM-48U.
  • RM-48U missiles accounted for more than half of the 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles launched in July and early August, according to data attributed to the Office of the Prosecutor General.
  • Launches of Iskander missiles dropped to 38 in July, down from more than 100 the previous month.
  • The 'RM' marking stands for 'ракетa-мішень' (target missile); the RM-48U is fired from S-400 air-defense systems and described by HUR as a Russian ballistic 'Frankenstein' assembled from S-300/S-400 components.
  • The RM-48U has an average deviation of about 300 meters from its target and carries a 199 kg fragmentation-explosive warhead; HUR says Russia plans to more than double production this year, from over 200 to over 480 missiles.
  • The August 5 strike on the 'Kvitneva' suburban railway platform in Kyiv Oblast, which killed eight people, was carried out by an RM-48U, not an Iskander-M.
  • RUSI estimates Russia's reserves at around 100 Iskander and 400 RM-48U missiles, with Iskander production at roughly 750 per year constrained by solid-fuel rocket motors.

Why it matters

The mass combat use of RM-48U, originally a training target, signals Russia adapting to production constraints under sanctions pressure. By spending cheaper, less accurate missiles now, Russia aims to wear down Ukraine's air-defense interceptors while preserving its limited stock of Iskander, KN-23/24, Zircon and Kinzhal missiles for a winter campaign. The August 5 strike on the 'Kvitneva' railway platform that killed eight people — carried out by an RM-48U rather than an Iskander-M — shows that these 'target' missiles still produce lethal outcomes against civilian infrastructure.

What happened

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) and the Office of the Prosecutor General report that Russia has significantly increased its use of RM-48U missiles for strikes on Ukraine in recent months. Originally designed as training targets for S-400 air-defense crews — 'RM' stands for 'ракетa-мішень' — the missile is now being launched from S-400 systems at scale. According to HUR, it is a single-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile flying at 4–6 Mach with a stated range of up to 400 km, a 199 kg fragmentation-explosive warhead, and inertial plus satellite navigation. HUR describes it as a Russian ballistic 'Frankenstein', built from S-300/S-400 components (the solid-fuel engine from the 48N6DM guided missile and the tail section from the 48N6E2 export variant). The RM-48U is less powerful than the Iskander and less accurate, with an average deviation of about 300 meters from targets. In July, Russia launched 158 ballistic and hypersonic missiles — the highest monthly figure since the 2022 invasion — 87 of them RM-48Us, while Iskander launches fell from over 100 the previous month to 38. HUR says Russia plans to more than double RM-48U production this year, from over 200 last year to over 480. RUSI estimates Russian reserves at around 100 Iskanders and 400 RM-48Us, with Iskander production at roughly 750 per year, bottlenecked by solid-fuel motors. Russia has reportedly set up dedicated units — a special tactical missile group — to operate RM-48U strikes. The August 5 attack on the 'Kvitneva' suburban railway platform in Kyiv Oblast, which killed eight people, was carried out by an RM-48U rather than an Iskander-M.

How Ukrainian sources describe it

Both supplied articles are Ukrainian-language media reports, so the framing is Ukrainian in tone rather than a comparison between Ukrainian and foreign outlets. Ukrainian coverage explicitly credits named Ukrainian institutions — the Office of the Prosecutor General (Генпрокуратура) for launch statistics, and HUR (ГУР) for technical analysis and production figures — alongside the British think tank RUSI for analyst commentary. The coverage foregrounds HUR's 'Frankenstein' characterization of the RM-48U as a missile assembled from S-300/S-400 parts, and uses the August 5 strike on the 'Kvitneva' railway platform in Kyiv Oblast, which killed eight people, as a concrete illustration of the missile's lethal cost. Strategically, Ukrainian reporting emphasizes that Russia is deliberately depleting Ukrainian air-defense interceptors now while stockpiling Iskander, KN-23/24, Zircon and Kinzhal missiles for a winter campaign.

Where reporting differs

The two supplied articles diverge on which Western think tank provided which figures. One set of facts (fact 150387) attributes both the stockpile estimate (around 100 Iskanders and around 400 RM-48Us) and the Iskander production estimate (around 750 per year) to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Another set (fact 151638) attributes the stockpile figures to ISW but mentions RUSI in the source line, while a separate RUSI-sourced figure (fact 151640) gives the Iskander production estimate — so it is unclear whether ISW or RUSI provided which number. The articles also differ slightly on who is credited for the July missile statistics: one attributes the data on RM-48Us making up more than half of 228 ballistic and hypersonic missiles in July and early August to Ukraine's Office of the Prosecutor General, while another refers to 'military analysts of the Prosecutor General's Office' — both pointing to the same body, but framed differently.

Background

The 'RM' marking in the missile's name stands for 'ракетa-мішень' (target missile). The RM-48U is launched from Russian S-400 air-defense systems using a solid-fuel engine borrowed from the 48N6DM guided missile and a tail section from the 48N6E2 export variant for S-300PMU1/2 and S-400. HUR describes it as a Russian ballistic 'Frankenstein' assembled from these S-300/S-400 components. It flies a ballistic trajectory at 4–6 Mach with a stated range of up to 400 km and carries a 199 kg fragmentation-explosive warhead with prepared fragmentation elements. HUR says Russia plans to more than double RM-48U production in the current year, from over 200 last year to over 480. RUSI's senior researcher Sidharth Kaushal estimated Iskander production at roughly 750 per year, with solid-fuel rocket motors as the binding constraint.