ISW: Russian forces lost ground across most of Ukraine’s front in October
Russian forces lost positions for a second consecutive month in October 2026, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Their net territorial losses amounted to 27.29 square kilometers, or 76.38 square kilometers when areas entered but not fully controlled are included. Ukrainian forces gained initiative on several fronts, while Russia retained it only near Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast.
Key points
- Russian forces lost 167.14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in October 2026 but captured or consolidated 139.85 square kilometers.
- Net Russian territorial losses totaled 27.29 square kilometers, rising to 76.38 square kilometers when areas entered without full control are included.
- Russia’s military losses in October exceeded 54,000 personnel, according to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
- October’s Russian personnel losses were the highest monthly figure since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.
- Russian forces captured 10 settlements, while Ukrainian forces liberated or cleared 11 settlements of Russian sabotage groups.
- Ukraine gained initiative on the Kupiansk, Lyman and Oleksandrivka directions, while Russia retained it near Dobropillia.
- Russian forces did not complete the capture of Kostiantynivka, where the operation has continued for more than a year.
Why it matters
The loss of positions across most of the front indicates a weakening Russian offensive capability. October also recorded the highest monthly Russian personnel losses since the full-scale invasion began, while Ukrainian forces seized initiative on several directions. The operational picture suggests that Russia’s ability to sustain territorial gains remains limited, even as it retains initiative near Dobropillia.
What happened
ISW reported that Russian forces lost positions for the second consecutive month in October 2026. They captured or consolidated 139.85 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory while losing 167.14 square kilometers, producing a net loss of 27.29 square kilometers, or an average of 0.88 square kilometers per day. Including territory where Russian troops entered but did not establish control, their net losses rose to 76.38 square kilometers, averaging 2.46 square kilometers per day.
The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said Russian forces suffered 54,400 personnel losses in October, either killed or seriously wounded. ISW described this as the highest monthly Russian loss since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, noting that monthly losses had exceeded 40,000 for four consecutive months.
Russia captured 10 settlements, while Ukrainian forces liberated or cleared 11 settlements of Russian sabotage groups. Ukrainian forces seized the initiative on the Kupiansk, Lyman and Oleksandrivka fronts and fought for it in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Russian forces retained initiative only near Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast. The campaign to capture Dobropillia and advance toward Kryvyi Rih from the west failed to reach its objective before spring 2027 and, according to ISW’s estimate, would require substantial personnel and resources and take years if it remained feasible at all. The capture of Kostiantynivka, first entered by Russian troops in October 2025, also remained unfinished after more than a year of fighting.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian outlets presented the ISW assessment through Russian personnel losses and changes in control along individual fronts, alongside the General Staff’s estimate of 54,400 Russian soldiers killed or seriously wounded in October. The framing emphasized that Ukrainian forces held or regained the initiative on several directions while Russian gains were largely localized.
How international sources describe it
ISW focused its assessment on front-line dynamics, monthly personnel losses, changes in control over settlements and the offensive capacity of Russian forces. Its central conclusion was that high personnel losses and territorial reversals indicated that Russia had lost the initiative and offensive potential across most of the front.
Background
ISW assessed that high Russian losses, difficulties with replenishing the army and territorial setbacks prompted Vladimir Putin to adopt a new “theory of victory.” It reportedly involves using long-range ballistic missiles and reactive drones to pressure Ukraine into capitulating during the winter. The scope of Russian operations remained geographically uneven: Russian forces made gains in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts but lost territory in other sectors, particularly Donetsk Oblast.