Czech, Latvian and Swedish intelligence chiefs warn of intensifying Russian sabotage campaign in Europe
The heads of the intelligence services of the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden told The Guardian in separate interviews that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. They differed on the likelihood of an actual Russian invasion of NATO territory, with the Czech chief suggesting it could happen within months while his Latvian counterpart said he saw no signs of an imminent attack.
Key points
- Czech BIS chief Michal Koudelka said Russia could undertake a limited invasion of a NATO country, false-flag operations or a large-scale influence campaign within 'months, not years'
- Latvian VDD chief Normunds Mežviets said his service sees no signs of an imminent Russian attack
- Swedish intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson said he sees no signs Moscow is seriously preparing for real negotiations to end the war in Ukraine
- Nilsson called the explosive-drone incident at Leipzig airport, which German authorities link to Russian intelligence, a 'turning point'
- All three chiefs said Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months
- According to Nilsson, the goals of the sabotage activity include reducing support for Ukraine, creating divisions within NATO and intimidating European populations
Why it matters
Three of Europe's top intelligence chiefs went on the record warning that Russia's covert campaign against European states supporting Ukraine is set to escalate, putting the threat at the centre of public debate. Their disagreement over whether Moscow could move beyond sabotage to a limited invasion of NATO territory highlights how uncertain Western capitals remain about Russia's near-term intentions.
What happened
The heads of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), Latvia's State Security Service (VDD) and Sweden's military intelligence and security service gave separate interviews to The Guardian over the previous week. All three said Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. Michal Koudelka of the Czech BIS said Russia could attempt a limited invasion of a NATO country, false-flag provocations or a large-scale influence operation within 'months, not years,' and described Russia's current tactic as 'escalation in order to de-escalate,' aimed at pressuring Western societies to reduce support for Ukraine. Normunds Mežviets of the Latvian VDD said there are no signs of an imminent Russian attack, though he acknowledged signs that Moscow is preparing more decisive actions in Europe and that it is unclear whether these are concrete plans or part of a broader strategy of destabilisation. He added that Russia is moving from chaotic acts of sabotage and arson to attacks on specific objects linked to Western support for Ukraine. Thomas Nilsson of Sweden's military intelligence said he sees no signs that Moscow is seriously preparing for real negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine, and called the recent incident with an explosive drone at Leipzig airport — which German authorities have linked to Russian intelligence — a 'turning point.' He listed the goals of the intensified sabotage activity as reducing support for Ukraine, creating divisions within NATO and intimidating European populations. Koudelka also noted that the sabotage campaign is overloading intelligence service resources, since doubts about the cause of incidents often linger even when other factors are responsible.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian-language coverage centres on the threat the sabotage campaign poses to European states and emphasises that the three chiefs agree it will intensify in the coming months. The framing highlights the risk of Russian provocations against NATO countries bordering Russia and the stated Russian goals of reducing support for Ukraine, dividing NATO and intimidating European populations. Ukrainian outlets also note that Baltic politicians fear public talk of imminent invasion could damage their societies and economies, alongside recent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on 17 September about possible Russian hybrid attacks and from Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys on 18 September about preparations for a Russian hybrid operation against states supporting Ukraine.
Where reporting differs
The Czech and Latvian intelligence chiefs give differing assessments of the likelihood of a Russian invasion of NATO territory. Koudelka of the Czech BIS said a limited invasion, false-flag provocations or a large-scale influence campaign could occur within 'months, not years.' Mežviets of the Latvian VDD said his service sees no signs of an imminent Russian attack and that it is unclear whether Moscow has concrete plans or is simply seeking to spread fear and uncertainty in Western societies.
Background
The interviews were given to The Guardian and published separately over the previous week. German authorities have linked an incident involving an explosive drone at Leipzig airport to Russian intelligence, cited by the Swedish chief as a 'turning point.' Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated on 17 September that Russia may be preparing hybrid attacks using drones and missiles against NATO states. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys stated on 18 September that his country's intelligence had received data on preparations for a Russian hybrid operation against states supporting Ukraine. Baltic politicians, previously critical of Western Europe's softer stance on Russia, are now urging restraint in public talk of imminent invasion over concerns it could harm their societies and economies.