Czech, Latvian, Swedish intelligence chiefs warn of intensifying Russian sabotage in Europe
The heads of the security services of the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden told The Guardian they expect Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe to intensify in the coming months, while disagreeing on the likelihood of a Russian incursion into NATO territory.
Key points
- Czech BIS chief Michal Kudelka said Russia could carry out a limited invasion of NATO countries or false-flag provocations within 'months, not years.'
- Latvian VDD chief Normunds Mežviets said he sees no signs of an imminent Russian attack, though he acknowledged signs Moscow is preparing more decisive actions in Europe.
- Swedish intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson said he sees no indications Moscow is ready for real negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
- All three chiefs said Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in coming months.
- Nilsson called a recent drone incident carrying explosives at Leipzig airport, which German authorities attribute to Russian intelligence, a 'turning point.'
- The chiefs listed the goals of Russia's sabotage as reducing support for Ukraine, dividing NATO and intimidating European populations.
- Mežviets said Russia is shifting from chaotic arson and sabotage toward attacks on specific facilities tied to Western support for Ukraine.
Why it matters
Three European intelligence chiefs have publicly warned that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe will intensify in the coming months. They disagree on whether Russia might also attempt a limited incursion into NATO territory, signaling uncertainty at the top of European intelligence about how far Moscow may escalate. The stated goals of the campaign — reducing support for Ukraine, dividing NATO, and intimidating European publics — tie the threat directly to the war in Ukraine and to Western cohesion.
What happened
The heads of the security services of the Czech Republic (BIS), Latvia (VDD) and Sweden gave interviews to The Guardian about the Russian threat. All three said Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe is likely to intensify in the coming months. Czech BIS chief Michal Kudelka said Russia could carry out a limited invasion of NATO countries or false-flag provocations within 'months, not years,' potentially targeting NATO states bordering Russia. Latvian VDD chief Normunds Mežviets said he sees no signs of an imminent Russian attack, though he acknowledged signs Moscow is preparing more decisive actions in Europe, and said it is unclear whether Russia has direct invasion plans or is pursuing a broader destabilization strategy. Swedish intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson said he sees no signs Moscow is ready for real negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, and described a recent drone incident at Leipzig airport — which German authorities attribute to Russian intelligence — as a 'turning point.' Nilsson listed the aims of the sabotage campaign as reducing support for Ukraine, dividing NATO and intimidating European populations. Mežviets said Russia is shifting from chaotic arson and sabotage toward attacks on specific facilities tied to Western support for Ukraine. Kudelka added that the Kremlin seeks to pressure weak points in Western societies to suppress their backing for Ukraine's war effort, and that the sabotage campaign overburdens intelligence services, since doubts about the causes of incidents often linger.
How international sources describe it
The interviews, published by The Guardian, present the three intelligence chiefs' assessments side by side. International coverage leads with their shared warning that Russian sabotage in Europe will intensify in the coming months, and presents the divergence among them on the risk of a Russian incursion into NATO territory as a central element of the story.
Where reporting differs
The Czech, Latvian and Swedish intelligence chiefs agree that Russia's sabotage campaign in Europe will intensify, but they assess the probability of a Russian invasion of NATO countries differently. Czech BIS chief Michal Kudelka warned that a limited incursion or false-flag operation is possible within months. Latvian VDD chief Normunds Mežviets said he sees no signs of an imminent attack, while acknowledging signs Moscow is preparing more decisive actions in Europe and noting it is unclear whether Russia has direct invasion plans or is pursuing a broader destabilization strategy.
Background
Sweden's intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson cited the recent drone incident at Leipzig airport, which German authorities attribute to Russian intelligence, as a 'turning point.' Latvian VDD chief Normunds Mežviets described a shift in Russian activity from chaotic arson and sabotage toward attacks on specific facilities tied to Western support for Ukraine.