Trump says Russia has been attacking Ukraine's allies 'for about five years' amid NATO hybrid-warfare warnings

Why it matters

The sitting US president publicly framed Russia as already being at war with Ukraine's European backers, raising the political stakes for NATO solidarity and US commitment to collective defence. His remarks coincide with documented intelligence warnings, Baltic and Polish leader statements about possible Russian provocations or limited attacks on NATO territory, and a sharp year-on-year rise in recorded hybrid incidents. Estonia's contingency to seal its border with Russia in the event of mobilisation signals that Eastern European allies are already preparing for worst-case scenarios.

What happened

On 19 September 2026, Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that Russia has been attacking Ukraine's allies 'for approximately five years'. The comment came in answer to a question about Polish leaders' concerns over a possible Russian attack on Kyiv's partners. Trump also praised Polish President Nawrocki, saying he 'keeps everything under control' and noting that he had supported Nawrocki when the latter was 'in 12th place'.

The remarks landed amid a broader set of warnings from European and NATO officials. A senior NATO official said the number, seriousness and 'appetite for risk' of Russian hybrid activity had all increased, and that Moscow may mistakenly believe it has no choice but to intensify its hybrid campaign, which the official called a losing bet. A NATO representative stressed that the alliance currently sees no imminent threat of attack but cannot afford to be 'naive or complacent'.

According to the Ukrainian analytical centre Sagaydachny Security Center, 100 officially attributed hybrid incidents were recorded in Europe from January through August 2026, up from 60 in the same period of the previous year. A senior NATO official put the real figure at 'at least 200-plus', excluding cyberattacks; NATO headquarters in Brussels alone faces 'thousands' of cyberattacks per month. Recorded hybrid activity includes sabotage, cyberattacks, drones, attempts against critical infrastructure and airspace violations, with airspace violations rising particularly sharply.

In August, US intelligence warned that Moscow may be planning a limited attack on one NATO country in the coming years, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow at the end of the month to warn Russian officials against escalation against Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius has 'the same intelligence information' as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about a possible false-flag operation, dating back to July, and described politicians' public warnings as a coordinated message that any move against a NATO ally would trigger Article 5. NATO has not formally changed its threat assessment and two diplomats said allies have not been informed of any new intelligence. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said Estonia will close the border with Russia if general mobilisation is announced there.

How Ukrainian sources describe it

Both supplied Ukrainian sources — ZN.UA and Ukrinform — lead with Trump's Oval Office statement and present it as long-overdue US acknowledgement of Russian aggression against Ukraine's partners. They foreground the Sagaydachny Security Center's hybrid-incident tally as direct evidence of an escalating threat pattern that bears on Ukraine's own security, and amplify Eastern European voices — Polish, Lithuanian and Estonian leaders — as the front line of that threat.

Where reporting differs

The two sources disagree on the scale of Russian hybrid activity in Europe for January–August 2026. The Sagaydachny Security Center records 100 officially attributed incidents for that period, while a senior NATO official puts the real figure at 'at least 200-plus', excluding cyberattacks. The two figures are presented for the same period but attributed to different sources and methodologies, and the gap is not resolved in the available material.

Background

Hybrid incidents covered in the tally include sabotage, cyberattacks, drones, attempts against critical infrastructure and airspace violations, with airspace violations rising particularly sharply. A NATO representative has stressed that the alliance currently sees no imminent threat of attack but must remain prepared. Separately, Trump commented on what he called significant progress toward a new US military base in Poland, and praised Polish President Nawrocki.