European leaders warn of possible Russian strikes on NATO countries; alliance has not formally raised threat level
Several European heads of state and government publicly warned this week that Russia could soon carry out drone or missile strikes on NATO countries backing Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's warning was endorsed by French President Emmanuel Macron, while Finland's president urged citizens to prepare for possible sabotage. At the same time, two NATO diplomats said allies had received no new official intelligence and had not changed the alliance's formal threat assessment.
Key points
- Polish PM Donald Tusk warned that Moscow could soon launch drones or missiles at NATO countries supporting Ukraine.
- On 18 September French President Emmanuel Macron convened party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an urgent meeting on Ukraine, Iran and the energy crisis, and announced a new plan to protect critical infrastructure.
- Macron called Tusk's warning 'well-founded and well-supported by facts'.
- On 17 September Finnish President Alexander Stubb urged citizens to mentally prepare for incidents including sabotage and Russian drones.
- Dutch PM Rob Jetten said Tusk's warning should be taken very seriously.
- NATO aircraft shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania; a Russian ship fired signal flares at a Danish military helicopter; Germany accused a suspected Russian spy of attempting a drone attack on Leipzig airport.
- Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys said Vilnius had July intelligence on a possible 'false-flag operation', but two NATO diplomats said allies had received no new official intelligence and had not changed the alliance's threat assessment.
Why it matters
Several European heads of state and government are openly stating that a Russian military strike or hybrid operation against NATO territory is plausible, and announcing concrete precautionary steps such as hospital preparedness, evacuation planning, infrastructure protection plans and joint military exercises. The warnings are reinforced by recent incidents involving Russian military assets near NATO members and by reported US intelligence assessments of a possible limited Russian attack on a NATO country.
What happened
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that Moscow could soon launch drones or missiles at NATO countries supporting Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron endorsed the warning on 18 September, calling it 'well-founded and well-supported by facts', after convening party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an urgent meeting on Ukraine, Iran and the energy crisis, at which he announced a new plan to protect critical infrastructure. On 17 September Finnish President Alexander Stubb urged Finnish citizens to mentally prepare for possible incidents including sabotage and Russian drones. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said Tusk's warning should be taken very seriously.
The heightened rhetoric comes alongside a series of reported incidents: NATO aircraft shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania, a Russian ship fired signal flares at a Danish military helicopter, and Germany accused a suspected Russian spy of attempting a drone attack on Leipzig airport. Germany is preparing hospitals and Lithuania has updated evacuation plans in response. NATO troops are conducting exercises in the Baltic region; Belarusian armed forces held large-scale exercises near Lithuania; and German and Swedish forces carried out joint exercises near the Swedish island of Gotland.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly warned Russian officials against escalation during a late-August visit to Moscow, and US intelligence assessed in August that Moscow was planning a limited attack on a NATO country in the coming years. Moscow has intensified bellicose rhetoric ahead of Russian parliamentary elections.
Where reporting differs
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of imminent possible Russian drone or missile strikes on NATO countries supporting Ukraine, and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys cited July intelligence about a possible 'false-flag operation'. At the same time, two NATO diplomats said allies had received no official new intelligence within the alliance, and that NATO allies had not changed their threat assessment or taken additional multilateral response measures.
Background
Belarusian armed forces conducted large-scale exercises near Lithuania. On 17 September, Finnish President Alexander Stubb urged citizens to mentally prepare for possible incidents including sabotage and Russian drones. On 18 September, French President Emmanuel Macron convened party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates for an urgent meeting on Ukraine, Iran and the energy crisis, and announced a new plan to protect critical infrastructure. CIA Director John Ratcliffe reportedly warned Russian officials against escalation during a late-August visit to Moscow. Moscow has intensified bellicose rhetoric ahead of Russian parliamentary elections.