Global food prices hit highest level since late 2022, driven by sugar and grains
World food prices climbed to their highest level since late 2022 in August, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, with all five categories tracked by the FAO's index rising month-on-month. The increase was led by sugar and cereals, and FAO cut its forecast for 2026 global grain production. Russian attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure sharply curtailed Ukrainian grain exports and contributed to tighter supply.
Key points
- FAO Food Price Index reached 133.3 points in August, up 1.9% from July and the highest level since late 2022.
- All five FAO index categories rose in August; sugar jumped 11.9% and cereals 2.2%.
- Vegetable oil prices rose 0.6% to their highest level since June 2022; sugar hit its highest level since June 2025.
- FAO cut its 2026 global grain production forecast by 3.4 million tonnes to 2.980 billion tonnes, projecting the largest annual decline since 2018.
- Russian attacks on Black Sea ports since mid-July 2026 have sharply reduced Ukrainian grain shipments through sea routes.
- Ukraine exported 981,000 tonnes of grain in August 2026, 2.5 times less than in the same month a year earlier, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy.
- Ukraine shipped 3.726 million tonnes of grain and legumes in the first two months of the 2026/27 marketing year, down 7.2% year-on-year.
- Extreme heat and drought in Europe and an expected El Niño event in Asia have added risks to upcoming harvests.
Why it matters
The rebound of the FAO index to its highest level since late 2022 signals a fresh wave of food-price pressure, with every one of the index's five categories moving higher at once rather than a single commodity driving the increase. Russia's attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure have cut Ukrainian grain shipments sharply and tightened global supply, while FAO's lowered 2026 production outlook points to the steepest annual decline since 2018. Weather stress in Europe and Asia adds further risk to upcoming harvests.
What happened
The FAO Food Price Index rose to 133.3 points in August, up 1.9% from a revised July reading of 130.8 and the highest level since late 2022, though still nearly 17% below the March 2022 record. Sugar prices led the move with an 11.9% monthly jump, the index's biggest gain, while cereals rose 2.2% to their highest level since May 2024, with wheat up 2.6%. Vegetable oil prices added 0.6% to reach their highest level since June 2022, sugar hit its highest level since June 2025, and all five FAO categories rose together. FAO lowered its 2026 global grain production forecast by 3.4 million tonnes to 2.980 billion tonnes, projecting a 2% annual decline — the largest since 2018 — and cut its estimate of world grain stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season by 1.1% to 947.2 million tonnes. Black Sea attacks since mid-July 2026 have constrained shipments from both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine exported 981,000 tonnes of grain in August 2026, 2.5 times less than a year earlier; for the first two months of the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine shipped 3.726 million tonnes of grain and legumes, down 7.2% year-on-year, with wheat exports down 34.3% and barley down 34.5%. Ukrainian ports are effectively blockaded for the first time since 2022, and ship calls have fallen sharply.
Background
Although the August index is the highest since late 2022, it remains roughly 17% under the March 2022 record. The Black Sea region is one of the world's key grain export channels, and the intensification of attacks since mid-July 2026 has limited shipments from both Ukraine and Russia. FAO expects global grain production in 2026 to be 2% lower than in 2025.