Russia’s October diesel exports doubled after US sanctions easing, but no cargo reached the United States
Russia’s diesel exports more than doubled in October after the United States eased sanctions, but no shipment sent after the change reached the US. At least two tankers initially bound for the US changed course, while a fully loaded vessel remained off the eastern US coast awaiting a buyer. The agreement faced legal challenges in Congress and tighter warnings from New Jersey officials.
Key points
- Kpler estimates Russian diesel exports rose from 135,000 barrels per day in September to 271,000 in October.
- Richard Bronze and Energy Aspects estimate lower figures of 120,000 barrels per day in September and 260,000 in October.
- No Russian diesel shipment sent after sanctions were eased reached the United States.
- At least two tankers initially bound for the US changed course.
- The Agioi Fanendes carried 40,000 tonnes of Russian diesel and awaited a buyer off the eastern US coast.
- Trump announced an agreement with Putin on October 9 to increase Russian fuel supplies to the US and other markets.
- Ukraine resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries on October 30 after a two-week pause.
Why it matters
The surge in Russian exports did not translate into additional diesel deliveries to the United States, underscoring the gap between the announced agreement and actual maritime trade. The change in tanker courses and the cargo awaiting a buyer also point to uncertainty around US ports and enforcement. Meanwhile, the export increase followed Washington's pressure on Ukraine to halt refinery attacks, while Ukraine resumed those attacks after a two-week pause. Russia's continued export restrictions and reported gasoline shortages indicate pressure on its domestic fuel market.
What happened
Russia's diesel exports more than doubled in October after US sanctions were eased. Kpler recorded 271,000 barrels per day in October, compared with 135,000 in September, while Richard Bronze and Energy Aspects estimated 260,000 and 120,000 barrels per day, respectively. These levels remained far below the roughly 700,000 barrels per day averaged over the previous five Octobers. Russia increased exports to Brazil, Turkey and other countries, but no diesel shipment sent after the sanctions easing reached the United States. At least two tankers initially bound for the US changed course. The Agioi Fanendes, carrying 40,000 tonnes of Russian diesel, remained off the eastern US coast awaiting a buyer while the White House continued discussions with its owner. Trump had announced an agreement with Putin on October 9 to increase Russian fuel supplies to the US and other markets. Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries on October 30 after a two-week pause. Russia nevertheless continued restricting diesel exports through the end of January, with exceptions, and began rationing gasoline amid domestic shortages.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian coverage emphasizes the link between US pressure on Kyiv to stop attacks on Russian refineries and the subsequent rise in Russian diesel exports. It also highlights Ukraine's resumption of strikes on October 30 and their continuing impact on Russian refinery operations.
How international sources describe it
International coverage focuses on the contrast between Russia's sharply higher October exports and the absence of any post-sanctions diesel shipment reaching the United States. It also highlights changed tanker courses, a cargo awaiting a buyer off the eastern US coast, the White House's consumer-price argument and congressional opposition to the agreement.
Where reporting differs
Analysts differ on Russia's diesel export volumes. Kpler reports 271,000 barrels per day in October and 135,000 in September, while Richard Bronze and Energy Aspects estimate 260,000 and 120,000 barrels per day for those months. Despite the differences, all estimates show a substantial month-on-month increase and levels well below the five-year October average of roughly 700,000 barrels per day.
Background
Kpler recorded Russian diesel exports of 271,000 barrels per day in October, compared with 135,000 in September. Richard Bronze and Energy Aspects put the corresponding figures at 260,000 and 120,000 barrels per day. The five-year October average was about 700,000 barrels per day. Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin on October 9 concerning additional Russian fuel supplies to the United States and other markets.