US diesel prices rise despite Trump’s deal on Russian fuel imports
US diesel prices did not fall after Donald Trump announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel to the American and global markets. The average price increased from $6.28 per gallon on October 9 to $6.35 on October 28, while analysts questioned whether Russia can deliver the promised volumes or materially reduce prices.
Key points
- Average US diesel prices rose from $6.28 per gallon on October 9 to $6.35 on October 28.
- Trump announced the agreement with Putin on October 9, pledging more than 300,000 tons of Russian diesel for US and global markets.
- OFAC issued a temporary general license through April 7, 2027, allowing Russian diesel shipments to the global market.
- Expected deliveries were slightly above 100,000 barrels per day in October and about 125,000 barrels per day in November.
- A tanker carrying roughly 300,000 barrels of Russian diesel left the Russian port of Primorsk in mid-October.
- The tanker initially listed New York as its destination before changing it to “chartered,” leaving no confirmed port of discharge.
- Analysts cited refinery problems, export restrictions and fuel shortages in Moscow as constraints on Russian exports.
Why it matters
The agreement was presented as a way to lower fuel prices, but the average US diesel price rose by seven cents per gallon after its announcement. Temporary US authorization also opens the way for Russian diesel to enter the global market, raising questions about sanctions enforcement and the legality of the shipments. Meanwhile, refinery constraints, export restrictions and fuel shortages in Moscow could limit the promised supply.
What happened
Trump announced on October 9 that Putin had agreed to supply more than 300,000 tons of Russian diesel to US and global markets, with additional shipments planned for November and afterward. The same day, OFAC issued a temporary general license allowing Russian diesel shipments to the global market through April 2027, effectively suspending sanctions on those exports until April 7, 2027. Nevertheless, the average US diesel price rose from $6.28 per gallon on October 9 to $6.35 on October 28. A tanker loaded with approximately 300,000 barrels of Russian diesel subsequently left the port of Primorsk, but its listed destination changed from New York to “chartered,” leaving no confirmed unloading port. The first tanker, Agioi Fanendes, was expected to arrive in the United States on November 7.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian reporting focused on the failure of diesel prices to decline as expected, uncertainty over actual Russian deliveries and criticism of the US decision. Zelenskyy called the decision weak and linked it to reported Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries and other oil facilities. He described those strikes as a response to Russia’s years-long attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector and said Ukraine was ready to stop them if Russia halted attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
How international sources describe it
The agreement and OFAC license were presented in the context of global fuel markets and sanctions compliance. International coverage highlighted the modest increase in US diesel prices, the first tanker’s change of destination and analysts’ doubts about the scale and price impact of Russian supplies. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the agreement was intended to demonstrate to Moscow the economic benefits of ending the war against Ukraine, while Senator Richard Blumenthal said the imports were illegal.
Where reporting differs
Ukrainian officials and analysts questioned whether Russia could deliver the promised volumes or materially reduce diesel prices. They pointed to problems at Russian refineries, export restrictions and fuel shortages in Moscow as reasons the supply targets might not be met.
Background
Expected Russian deliveries were only slightly above 100,000 barrels per day in October and approximately 125,000 barrels per day in November, compared with estimated Russian diesel exports of about 800,000 barrels per day in 2025. Russian Vice Prime Minister Oleksandr Novak said US deliveries could begin within 15 to 20 days after commercial contracts were signed and could potentially reach 3.5 million tons per month if refineries operated at full capacity.