NATO Weighs Shift to Preparing for One Major Conflict or Crisis Mission
All 32 NATO countries have begun discussions on new force-planning targets that would determine how military resources are allocated and funded during conflicts or crises. A draft document would replace the requirement to prepare simultaneously for a large-scale war in Europe and several smaller missions with a choice between the two. The proposal remains at an early stage, with final agreement expected by February.
Key points
- All 32 NATO countries are discussing new military capability targets.
- The targets determine what forces and weapons allies provide during conflicts and who finances them.
- A draft uses "or" instead of "and," planning resources for either a major European war or smaller crisis missions.
- The talks form part of the "Political Guidelines" in NATO's four-year review process.
- New military capacity requirements are expected to be approved by 2029.
- The debate over "and" versus "or" is at a very early stage, with agreement expected by February.
- The change would not automatically affect current NATO missions in Kosovo and Iraq.
Why it matters
The proposed rules could determine whether NATO must prepare resources for both a major European war and several smaller crisis operations at the same time. The shift also reflects US pressure to prioritize European defence under the proposed "NATO 3.0," while European officials warn that Russia could attempt to invade NATO territory by 2029. Defence budget constraints may complicate the review, and current operations in Kosovo and Iraq would not be automatically affected.
What happened
All 32 NATO members have started negotiations on the force-planning targets that determine what forces and weapons allies will contribute during a conflict and how those resources will be financed. The talks concern the "Political Guidelines" as part of NATO's four-year review of its military capacity. A draft document would use "or" rather than "and," meaning allies would plan sufficient resources for either a large-scale war in Europe or several smaller crisis missions, but not both simultaneously. The discussion remains at an early stage, and allies are expected to finalize the document by February. New military capacity requirements are to be approved by 2029.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian reporting emphasizes the need to counter Russia, protect Europe and reassess the US military presence. It highlights the proposed "NATO 3.0," the possibility of a Russian invasion by 2029 and defence budget constraints that could make the review more difficult. The sources also note differing allied positions: Southern Europe tends to favour partnerships and crisis management, while the US, Northern Europe and frontline allies give greater priority to defence against the Russian threat.
How international sources describe it
International coverage focuses on the mechanism for revising force targets and whether allies should prepare for both scenarios simultaneously. Senior NATO figures stress that a major emergency in Europe would take priority, while the ability to conduct crisis-response operations is not being abandoned. Current missions in Kosovo and Iraq would not change automatically, and the document is expected to be finalized by February.
Where reporting differs
The sources differ in how they describe the status of the proposal. Some formulations present the talks and document as confirmed, while others characterize them as a reported proposal still at a very early stage.
Background
After the Cold War, NATO focused primarily on operations beyond its territory, including Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan. For at least 20 years, the alliance required enough forces to cover both a major conflict and multiple smaller external crisis missions. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted NATO to reassess European defence priorities. NATO officially identified collective defence, partnership with third countries and cooperative security as its three main tasks in 2010.