Lithuanian president says Russia is probing NATO through hybrid attacks
Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda says Russia is not ready for a large-scale attack on NATO but is testing the alliance through hybrid attacks and provocations. He expects Russia to intensify pressure on Ukraine during the winter, while serious negotiations are unlikely before spring 2027.
Key points
- Russia is not currently prepared for a classical attack or large-scale military operation against NATO, according to Nausėda.
- Nausėda expects Russian provocations and hybrid attacks against NATO to continue.
- Russia is viewed as gradually testing NATO's willingness to invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
- Lithuania is accelerating purchases of air-defense, intelligence and counter-drone systems.
- A drone that crashed into a tree and detonated in Lithuania exposed gaps in the country's air defenses; no casualties were reported.
- Nausėda does not expect serious Russia-Ukraine negotiations before spring 2027 and predicts continued winter air strikes on Ukrainian cities.
- Ukraine, Russia and the United States plan delegation-level talks for November 10-11.
Why it matters
The assessment points to a heightened risk of hybrid escalation across NATO without an immediate threat of a full-scale Russian attack. Lithuania's accelerated procurement and the incident that exposed gaps in its air defenses illustrate how the security environment is changing. For Ukraine, the projected continuation of winter air strikes and the lack of serious negotiations before spring 2027 could shape its security outlook into 2027, while the planned trilateral talks may determine whether the diplomatic track develops.
What happened
President Gitanas Nausėda assessed that Russia is not ready for a classical attack or broad military operation against NATO because its resources remain concentrated in the war against Ukraine. He nevertheless expects Moscow to continue provocations and hybrid attacks, increasingly testing NATO's readiness to invoke Article 5.
Nauseda described illegal migration, balloons violating NATO airspace and drones arriving from Ukraine or Russia as forms of hybrid warfare. He expects such activity to continue on NATO's eastern flank and in Germany, Denmark and other countries. A recent drone incident in Lithuania, in which the aircraft struck a tree and detonated but caused no casualties, exposed gaps in the country's air defenses. Lithuania is therefore accelerating purchases of air-defense, intelligence and counter-drone systems.
On Ukraine, Nausėda predicts that Russia will use the winter months to intensify air strikes on cities. He believes Ukraine can withstand the winter but does not expect serious negotiations before spring 2027, when he says the chances of substantive talks will increase. He also expects any early Russian demands to be unacceptable to Ukraine. Delegation-level talks involving Ukraine, Russia and the United States are scheduled for November 10-11.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
The coverage centers the immediate danger posed by Russian provocations against NATO, including drone incursions, sabotage attempts, assassination threats and incidents along Poland's border with Russia. Ukraine's ability to withstand the coming winter is presented as the central issue, while the prospect of intensified air strikes and a lack of serious negotiations before spring 2027 indicates a difficult near-term outlook. The planned Ukraine-Russia-US talks are the main immediate diplomatic development.
How international sources describe it
The coverage emphasizes Russia's gradual testing of NATO's willingness to invoke Article 5 rather than an immediate preparation for a classical large-scale attack. Attention is also directed at hybrid threats on NATO's eastern flank and in Germany, Denmark and other countries, alongside Lithuania's defensive response. American mediation is highlighted through the reported claim that the US envoy is working on European security as part of the negotiations.
Where reporting differs
The two sources identify the US special envoy involved in the negotiations differently: one refers to Jared Kushner and the other to Stephen Kushner.
Background
The reported drone incident in Lithuania involved an aircraft hitting a tree and detonating, with no casualties, and exposed shortcomings in the country's air defenses. Nausėda identified illegal migration, balloons violating NATO airspace, and drones arriving from Ukraine or Russia as forms of hybrid warfare. Recently cited incidents include drone incursions, sabotage attempts, assassination threats and a provocation along Poland's border with Russia.