Ukraine's Hryvnia Hits Record Low Against the Dollar as Central Bank Steps Up Intervention
Ukraine's hryvnia fell to a record low against the US dollar after the National Bank of Ukraine set the official rate at 45.6660 hryvnias per dollar on November 4. The central bank sold over $6 billion during October, including a record $1.818 billion in the final week, as business demand for foreign currency outpaced sales and the black-market rate moved above the official one.
Key points
- The National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar rate at 45.6660 hryvnias on November 4, up 13 kopecks in one day.
- The hryvnia's official rate rose from 45.0802 hryvnias per dollar on October 14.
- The NBU sold more than $6 billion on the interbank foreign exchange market during October.
- Interventions reached a record $1.818 billion in the last week of October.
- At PrivatBank on November 4, the dollar was bought at 45.50 hryvnias and sold at 46.10 hryvnias.
- The black-market dollar reached 47.50 hryvnias in late October, while the 'white' dollar traded at 47.00 hryvnias.
- KSE Institute projects average annual rates of 44.5 hryvnias per dollar in 2026 and 47.8 in 2027.
Why it matters
The record-low exchange rate reflects substantial pressure on Ukraine's currency and growing market volatility. Continued large-scale central bank interventions, a widening trade deficit and heavy import demand could put further downward pressure on the hryvnia. At the same time, depreciation is narrowing the real return on long-term hryvnia savings, which may affect how households and investors choose to hold their money.
What happened
The National Bank of Ukraine raised the official dollar rate to 45.6660 hryvnias on November 4, making the hryvnia weaker against the currency than at any previously recorded point and lifting the dollar by 13 kopecks in a single day. The euro was set at 51.06 hryvnias, up 1 kopick. The central bank sold more than $6 billion on the interbank market during October, with interventions in the final week reaching a record $1.818 billion and monthly volumes holding at $5–6 billion for a fifth consecutive month. Business demand for foreign currency substantially exceeded sales. Sharp growth in budget spending contributed to significant currency-market swings late on November 3 and early on November 4. The NBU said it had sufficient international reserves to smooth exchange-rate volatility and had met banks' requests in full, and it saw no economic reason for a wider gap between the official rate and banks' retail selling rates. To support bank cash desks, the regulator announced cash-for-cash currency swap operations on November 3 and planned to repeat them on November 4.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian reporting focused on the National Bank's interventions, official and black-market exchange rates, and the immediate effects of depreciation on domestic markets. It highlighted the trade deficit, import demand, budget spending and bank cash liquidity, along with the outlook for returns on hryvnia savings. Holiday sellers have already priced the dollar at at least 55 hryvnias, and some leading analysts have begun citing 80 hryvnias per dollar in currency reviews.
Background
The official dollar rate rose from 45.0802 hryvnias on October 14 to 45.6660 hryvnias on November 4, while PrivatBank quoted 45.50 hryvnias for buying and 46.10 hryvnias for selling on November 4. Ukraine's trade deficit was reported at $44 billion in the previous year, with forecasts putting it above $70 billion this year and around $80 billion next year. Analysts estimated that just under half of the import flow went directly to retail rather than to weapons or generators for the front. KSE Institute projected average annual exchange rates of 44.5 hryvnias per dollar in 2026, 47.8 in 2027, 50.6 in 2028 and 51 in 2029.