Naftogaz Prepares 24 Scenarios for Winter Amid Russian Attack Risks
Ukraine’s state gas company Naftogaz has prepared 24 scenarios for the winter heating season, accounting for possible Russian attacks, weather conditions and domestic gas production. Acting Board Chair Serhiy Fedorenko said each scenario has defined action measures and that international financing is needed to support them.
Key points
- Naftogaz prepared 24 winter scenarios for the 2026/2027 heating season.
- Each scenario considers Russian strike intensity, temperatures and Ukraine’s domestic gas output.
- Naftogaz defined action algorithms for all 24 scenarios, which it said require additional funding.
- Russia has carried out more than 400 attacks on Naftogaz facilities since the start of 2026, over twice the 2025 total.
- Gas-production infrastructure remains the main target of the attacks.
- Norway has already provided grant assistance for Naftogaz to purchase additional gas.
- About 100 Ukrnafta petrol stations, over 10% of its retail network, have been damaged.
Why it matters
Naftogaz is central to Ukraine’s ability to keep homes and industry warm during winter. The range of predefined responses indicates that the company is treating Russian attacks on energy infrastructure as a major risk to heating security. International funding is a necessary condition for implementing all 24 scenarios.
What happened
Naftogaz announced that it had prepared 24 scenarios covering different levels of Russian attacks, temperature conditions and domestic gas production volumes. The company has established corresponding action plans for each scenario. Fedorenko presented the preparations during an online briefing with Ukrainian ambassadors worldwide and identified infrastructure restoration, stronger protection of energy facilities and financing for advance gas purchases as the three priorities for international cooperation. Norway’s grant support for additional gas purchases was cited as an example of successful cooperation.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian media portray the plan primarily as a matter of domestic preparedness, with Naftogaz responsible for managing risks to the heating season. They also emphasize coordination with Ukrainian ambassadors abroad and the need to attract further international financing, framing energy security as both a domestic and diplomatic task. The scale of the Russian attacks and damage to Ukrnafta stations underline the need for contingency planning.
How international sources describe it
The announcement positions winter energy security as an international-partnership issue involving financing, infrastructure protection and advance gas purchases. Norway’s grant assistance demonstrates one form of support, while Naftogaz continues seeking international resources for the coming winter.
Where reporting differs
One source dates the scenarios to the 2026/2027 heating season and places the announcement in July 2026, while the other sources treat the announcement as a 2025 event about the approaching winter. A separate lower-confidence input gives the announcement date as 22 October without specifying the year.
Background
Naftogaz lost roughly half of its gas production in a single incident in February 2025 and expected full-year production to be about 30% below plan after massive Russian shelling in early October 2025. More than 400 attacks on group facilities have occurred since the start of 2026. Ukraine imported 6.47 billion cubic metres of gas in 2025, compared with 724 million cubic metres in 2024, while Naftogaz purchased a reported record 7.6 billion cubic metres in 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Most purchases were funded by international partners, including announced financing from Naftogaz, the EBRD, Norway and other institutions.