KIIS poll: trust in Zelensky jumped after US–Russia diesel deal
A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll found that 54% of Ukrainians trust President Volodymyr Zelensky after a US–Russia agreement easing sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. KIIS attributed the rise in part to a rally-around-the-flag effect following US pressure on Ukraine, but said it is unknown how long that effect could last.
Key points
- 54% of respondents said they trust Zelensky, while 41% said they do not (22% completely trust, 32% rather trust; 24% completely do not trust, 17% rather do not).
- Trust rose from 43% in polling on 8–9 October to 57% in polling on 10–16 October, while distrust fell from 52% to 39%.
- KIIS said the increase may reflect a rally-around-the-flag effect after US pressure on Ukraine.
- KIIS said it is unknown how long this effect could last.
- The poll was conducted by CATI with a random sample of mobile numbers; 1,031 Ukrainian citizens aged 18+ in government-controlled territory took part.
- Residents of temporarily occupied territories and people who left Ukraine after 24 February 2022 were excluded from the sample.
- The formal margin of error does not exceed 4.0% for indicators close to 50%.
- On 9 October, US President Donald Trump agreed in a phone call with Vladimir Putin to supply Russian diesel to American and world markets; the US Treasury later issued a license permitting imports of Russian diesel through 7 April 2027.
- Zelensky criticized the move, calling any easing of sanctions without a clear long-term de-escalation agreement an obvious weakness and saying the deal gives Russia additional money for the war.
Why it matters
The poll points to a substantial short-term rise in public support for Zelensky after the diesel agreement. KIIS framed the increase as a possible rally-around-the-flag response to US pressure on Ukraine, while flagging uncertainty about how long the effect will last.
What happened
A KIIS poll found that 54% of Ukrainians trust President Volodymyr Zelensky, with 22% saying they completely trust him and 32% saying they rather trust him, while 41% said they do not trust him. The trust figure was 43% in polling conducted on 8–9 October and 57% in polling conducted on 10–16 October, with distrust falling from 52% to 39% over the same period. KIIS attributed the rise in part to a rally-around-the-flag effect after US pressure on Ukraine but said it is unknown how long that effect could last.
The shift came in the wake of a 9 October phone call between US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in which Trump agreed to supply Russian diesel to American and world markets. The US Department of the Treasury subsequently issued a license permitting the sale, delivery, unloading and import of Russian diesel through 7 April 2027. Zelensky criticized the move, calling any easing of sanctions without a clear long-term de-escalation agreement an obvious weakness and saying it provides additional money for the war. Seven US senators from both parties said the Trump administration's decision contradicts US law and called on the president to reverse it.
The poll was conducted by computer-assisted telephone interviewing based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers across all regions of Ukraine within government-controlled territory. A total of 1,031 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older took part. Residents of temporarily occupied territories and people who left Ukraine after 24 February 2022 were excluded from the sample. Under normal circumstances, the formal statistical margin of error does not exceed 4.0% for indicators close to 50%.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian outlets led with the domestic political effect of the diesel agreement, emphasizing the jump in Zelensky's trust ratings and the possible rally-around-the-flag response to US pressure. Coverage highlighted the easing of restrictions on Russian energy sales, the way it may finance Russia's war effort, and Zelensky's public criticism of the US decision.
How international sources describe it
The English-language account foregrounds the numerical change in trust and distrust and identifies the diesel deal and US pressure as the context. It notes KIIS's uncertainty about how long the rally-around-the-flag effect could last.
Where reporting differs
The two Ukrainian sources report the same poll numbers. KIIS's own framing is internally mixed: it says trust rose after the agreement, while also suggesting that without the diesel deal and subsequent US pressure the poll might for the first time have recorded Zelensky's trust level below 50%.
Background
The diesel agreement refers to the US Treasury's authorization for Russian diesel sales through 7 April 2027. Zelensky criticized the easing of sanctions without a clear long-term de-escalation agreement. KIIS surveyed 1,031 adults in government-controlled territory and excluded residents of temporarily occupied territories and people who left Ukraine after 24 February 2022.