Czech intelligence chief warns of escalating Russian sabotage and possible action against NATO within months

Why it matters

A senior European intelligence chief has publicly assessed Russia as the foremost long-term threat and warned that the risk picture could deteriorate within months, not years. He identified concrete escalation paths — sabotage of arms plants supplying Ukraine, drone or missile strikes on Ukraine's backers, and possibly a limited operation against a NATO member — and pointed to an evolution from opportunistic arson-style sabotage toward operations by trained attackers with specific targets. His explicit framing of attacks on Ukrainian refugees as a tool to divide host societies has direct implications for European policy on refugees and on support for Ukraine.

What happened

Michal Koudelka, a lieutenant general and director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), spoke at the "Current Security Threats VII" conference in the lower house of the Czech Parliament, where he said Russia is the greatest threat to the security of the Czech Republic and that this will remain the case for a long time. He assessed that things are going badly for Russia in Ukraine and that Russian officials have apparently chosen a tactic he described as "escalation for de-escalation."

Koudelka cited important recent information indicating that Russia could take more dangerous and serious actions within the coming months, not years. He listed possible steps as sabotage attacks on military-industrial facilities in NATO countries producing weapons for Ukraine, drone or missile strikes on targets in states that support Ukraine, and a limited military operation against one NATO country. He stressed that a limited operation against a NATO ally is not currently an immediate threat because Russia is focused on the war against Ukraine, but said the risk assessment could change in the coming months, for example after a mobilization announcement.

On sabotage, Koudelka described Russian operations against European countries supporting Ukraine as one of the most serious current threats and said the trend is clearly worsening. He traced an evolution from early operations involving agents recruited via Telegram who set fire to warehouses or caused fires, to more recent cases involving trained attackers with specific targets and plans. He framed the broader threat as part of a hybrid war waged against all of democratic Europe using all available means, including attacks on Ukrainian refugees designed to provoke hostility toward refugees and the aid they receive and to drive a wedge between Ukrainian communities and local populations. In the information domain he characterized Russian activity as a "cognitive war" combining cyber, informational and psychological tools, and identified Russia, China, Iran and North Korea as an "axis of evil" whose hostile actions target democracies from the United States to Taiwan and Israel.

How Ukrainian sources describe it

Both Ukrainian-language sources (Ukrinform, a Ukrainian agency, and Yevropeiska pravda, a Ukrainian outlet focused on European affairs) pick up and amplify a European intelligence chief's warning that Russia is the principal long-term threat and that it is refining sabotage against Ukraine's supporters. They foreground the link between Russian sabotage and the war in Ukraine, presenting the threat as an outgrowth of Russia's difficulties on the Ukrainian front.

Where reporting differs

Ukrinform spells the spymaster's name "Michal Koudelka," while Yevropeiska pravda spells it "Mihal Koudelka." Both identify him as director of the BIS and a lieutenant general.

Background

Czech intelligence has framed the threat alongside a stated "axis of evil" of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, defined by a shared adversary in democratic states. Koudelka has described Russia's information efforts as a combination of cyber, informational and psychological tools aimed at shaping how populations think and decide. A limited military operation against a NATO country was characterized as not currently imminent because of Russia's focus on the war in Ukraine, but as something that could change, for example after a mobilization announcement.