Kiel Institute: less than half of Germany's €100bn in 'aid to Ukraine' reached Ukraine directly
An analysis by the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker finds that of the roughly €100 billion Germany counts as bilateral aid to Ukraine, only about €41.7 billion went directly to Ukraine. The tracker says about 80% of German civilian aid was spent inside Germany, much of it on social payments to Ukrainian refugees, and that €22 billion of the announced total are future military-aid commitments.
Key points
- Of €100bn in 'bilateral aid to Ukraine,' about €41.7bn went directly to Ukraine, per the Kiel Institute's Ukraine Support Tracker.
- Germany assessed its support to Ukraine as of 30 June 2026 at €100bn: €43.3bn civilian and €57.6bn military aid.
- About 80% of civilian aid (€35.9bn) was spent in Germany, including €27.45bn in social payments to Ukrainian refugees there.
- Only €7.4bn of German civilian aid reached Ukraine directly.
- In 2022–2025, Germany provided about €22.7bn in military aid, with a further €11.6bn allocated for 2026 and €22bn in future obligations.
- The Kiel Institute verified €56.3bn in military aid, €1.3bn less than the federal government's figure.
Why it matters
The Kiel Institute's findings put a question mark over how Germany publicly communicates the size of its support to Ukraine. Most of the civilian aid booked as Ukraine support is in fact spent in Germany, largely on social payments to Ukrainian refugees hosted there, and a large share of the announced total consists of future military-aid commitments rather than aid already delivered. Germany nonetheless remains the largest European donor of Ukraine, according to the tracker.
What happened
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Tracker has published an analysis of Germany's support to Ukraine. It finds that of the roughly €100 billion Berlin counts as 'bilateral aid to Ukraine,' only about €41.7 billion went directly to Ukraine.
The German government in August assessed its support as of 30 June 2026 at €100 billion: €43.3 billion in civilian aid and €57.6 billion in military aid that was "provided or planned for coming years." The Kiel researchers say about 80% of the civilian portion — €35.9 billion — was spent in Germany. That includes €27.45 billion in social payments to Ukrainian refugees in Germany and €7.15 billion passed to German federal states and municipalities for hosting and supporting those refugees. A further €1.3 billion went to export and investment guarantees for German companies operating in Ukraine. Only €7.4 billion of civilian aid reached Ukraine directly, of which €6.3 billion was humanitarian support, emergency assistance to the energy sector and support for Ukrainian state institutions, and €1 billion was a contribution to a Ukraine state account managed by the International Monetary Fund.
On military aid, the tracker puts deliveries in 2022–2025 at about €22.7 billion, with an additional €11.6 billion allocated for 2026 and a further €22 billion in future obligations. The Kiel researchers were able to verify €56.3 billion in military aid in total — €1.3 billion less than the figure cited by the federal government. Of the €22 billion in future commitments, €10.1 billion are already guaranteed and €12 billion are budgetary obligations for future spending.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Both Ukrainian outlets covering the study lead with the finding that less than half of the €100 billion Germany claims as 'bilateral aid to Ukraine' actually went to Ukraine. They give particular weight to the breakout of civilian aid — roughly 80% of it spent inside Germany, including social payments to Ukrainian refugees and transfers to German regions and municipalities — and to the €22 billion in future military-aid commitments that have not yet been delivered. They quote the head of the Ukraine Support Tracker describing the federal government's communication on the €100 billion figure as increasingly confusing and misleading.
Where reporting differs
The Kiel Institute's researchers verified €56.3 billion in military aid, which is €1.3 billion less than the figure stated by the German federal government. Both Ukrainian sources covering the study record this gap.
Background
The German government in August 2026 assessed its total support to Ukraine as of 30 June 2026 at €100 billion, split between civilian and military aid. The Ukraine Support Tracker is a project of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy that tracks international support to Ukraine; Christoph Trebesch leads it.