IMF estimates Ukraine's financing gap at $54 billion through 2029 as donors meet in Brussels
On September 29, Ukraine's donors gathered in Brussels to accelerate talks on further financial assistance, as IMF estimates put Ukraine's financing gap at about $54 billion through 2029. EU member states remain divided on whether to use roughly €210 billion in frozen Russian central-bank assets or issue new common debt, while the European Commission and IMF tie further assistance to Ukraine's implementation of a reform plan.
Key points
- IMF estimates Ukraine's financing gap at about $54 billion through 2029: $30–35 billion in 2027, $17 billion in 2028, $2 billion in 2029
- IMF said the estimates are preliminary and declined to comment
- On September 29, Ukraine's donors met in Brussels to discuss further financial assistance
- The EU earlier in 2025 approved a €90 billion (about $102 billion) loan package for Ukraine and is urging partners to deliver an additional €30 billion for this year and next
- Some EU states are again considering using roughly €210 billion in frozen Russian central-bank assets in Europe; others propose issuing new common EU debt
- The European Commission and IMF are requiring Ukraine to implement its reform plan to unlock further international assistance
- EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko were due to meet September 29 on reforms needed for the next EU budget support tranche
Why it matters
The IMF's $54 billion figure quantifies Ukraine's multi-year external financing need at a moment when donors are actively negotiating new support. The EU has not agreed on a financing mechanism, with member states split between tapping frozen Russian sovereign assets and issuing new common debt. Continued disbursements are tied to Ukraine implementing a reform plan required by the European Commission and IMF, while Ukrainian officials warn the fiscal situation is among the most strained since the start of the full-scale invasion.
What happened
Ukraine's donors met in Brussels on September 29 to accelerate negotiations on further financial assistance. The IMF estimates Ukraine's financing gap at about $54 billion through 2029: $30–35 billion in 2027, $17 billion in 2028, and $2 billion in 2029, describing the figures as preliminary and declining to comment. Earlier in 2025 the EU approved a €90 billion (about $102 billion) loan package and is calling on partners to fulfill commitments for an additional €30 billion for this year and next. Some EU member states are again considering using roughly €210 billion in frozen Russian central-bank assets in Europe, while others propose issuing new common EU debt. EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko were due to meet September 29 to discuss reforms required for the next EU budget support tranche, with the European Commission and IMF requiring implementation of Ukraine's reform plan as a condition for further assistance. On September 15, EU commissioners Dombrovskis and Marta Kos sent Ukrainian MPs a letter listing the laws Ukraine must adopt to access already agreed EU funding, in response to Ukraine's request for an additional $27 billion for defense. Ukrainian officials have warned of acute domestic budget strain: President Zelensky said Ukraine needs $27 billion to finance the army, including $8–10 billion for weapons for January–February 2027, and described the deficit as 'cosmic'; Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky called public finances 'close to critical' and warned that legislative delays could put a significant portion of $29.5 billion in international financing at risk; Finance Minister Marchenko said Ukraine has not faced such budget tension since 2022; and Verkhovna Rada Budget Committee head Roksolana Pidlasa reported state-budget revenues under plan by UAH 33.1 billion over January–August 2026. Ukraine has also requested assistance from the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian sources and officials lead with the IMF's preliminary $54 billion figure and the year-by-year breakdown, and detail statements from President Zelensky, Prime Minister Koretsky, Finance Minister Marchenko and Defense Minister Khmara about domestic budget strain. They emphasize the Verkhovna Rada's revenue shortfall and the risk that delays in adopting required legislation could cost Ukraine a significant portion of $29.5 billion in international financing. They also highlight Ukraine's parallel requests for assistance from the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan.
How international sources describe it
International framing centers on the IMF estimates and the EU's institutional response: the Brussels donor gathering and the Dombrovskis–Marchenko reform talks. It frames the discussion around how EU member states will raise additional financing — frozen Russian central-bank assets versus new common EU debt — and notes that further assistance is conditional on Ukraine implementing its reform plan. It also records that the IMF described the figures as preliminary and declined to comment.
Where reporting differs
Sources cite different 2027 financing-need figures: the IMF estimates $30–35 billion, Kyiv's own estimate is at least $32 billion in uncovered needs, and President Zelensky cited $27 billion for army financing (including $8–10 billion for weapons for January–February 2027); Forbes Ukraine analysts estimated the 2026 general-fund defense budget deficit could be cut to $6–8 billion through redistribution. On the fiscal situation, one anonymous European source questioned the efficiency of Ukraine's spending and whether its needs were inflated, while Ukrainian officials described the situation as 'close to critical' and Finance Minister Marchenko said Ukraine has not faced such budget tension since 2022. EU member states also disagree on the financing mechanism: some favor using roughly €210 billion in frozen Russian central-bank assets, while others propose issuing new common EU debt.
Background
Earlier in 2025 the EU approved a €90 billion (about $102 billion) loan package for Ukraine, but EU member states have not yet agreed on a way to provide additional financing. The war is expected to continue into the next year, and Russia and Ukraine have intensified strikes in recent months. Ukraine has also requested assistance from the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan.