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Event: September 25 · Published

Putin accuses Baltic states of oppressing Russian-speakers, denies planning war

At a September 25 press conference, Vladimir Putin accused Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of violating the rights of Russian-speaking populations and said Russia would respond within "humanitarian law." He simultaneously claimed Russia is not preparing military action against Europe and dismissed EU warnings of a Russian threat as deliberate provocation.

Key points

  • Putin accused Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of violating the rights of Russian-speaking populations.
  • Putin claimed Russia is "not preparing" for any military action against Europe and that there are no real grounds for escalation.
  • Putin said Russia responds to the alleged rights violations "in the humanitarian sphere" and "in the sphere of international law."
  • Putin characterized EU statements about a Russian threat as "provocation" and deliberate deception aimed at using Ukrainians as "cannon fodder."
  • Putin called statements by Estonian representatives about a potential Russian attack a "provocation."
  • Russian state agencies TASS and RIA Novosti reported the remarks on September 25.
  • The same day, Russian outlet Agenstvo reported that RIA Novosti had briefly published and then deleted a text advocating a "special military operation" in Lithuania, authored by Valdai Club co-founder Aleksandr Nosovich.

Why it matters

Putin's framing of alleged mistreatment of Russian-speakers in the Baltics echoes the rhetoric Russia used before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, raising concerns about signals regarding the Baltic states. His claim that Russia is "not preparing" for military action directly contradicts recent assessments from European security officials warning of Russian hybrid and conventional threats. The brief publication and subsequent deletion of a RIA Novosti text advocating a "special military operation" in Lithuania highlights the tension between official Russian reassurances and ultranationalist rhetoric in state-aligned media.

What happened

On September 25, at a press conference, Vladimir Putin accused Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia of violating the rights of Russian-speaking populations and said Russia would respond to the alleged violations within "humanitarian law" and "in the sphere of international law." In the same appearance, Putin claimed Russia "is not preparing" for any military action against Europe and asserted that there are no real grounds for escalation. He dismissed EU warnings of a Russian threat as deliberate "provocation" and "inflating the situation," accused EU authorities of deceiving Europeans in order to "use Ukrainians as cannon fodder," and called statements by Estonian representatives about a potential Russian attack a "provocation." The remarks were reported by Russian state agencies TASS and RIA Novosti. Separately on September 25, Russian outlet Agenstvo reported that RIA Novosti had briefly published and then deleted a text advocating a "special military operation" in Lithuania, identified as authored by Aleksandr Nosovich, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP) and co-founder of the Valdai Club.

How Ukrainian sources describe it

Both supplied articles are Ukrainian-language media outlets that center their coverage on the contrast between Putin's reassurance that Russia is "not preparing" for war in Europe and his accusations about Russian-speakers in the Baltics. They foreground the deletion of the RIA Novosti text promoting a "special military operation" in Lithuania, treating it as a notable data point alongside Putin's official statements and as evidence of tensions between official Russian reassurances and ultranationalist rhetoric in state-aligned media.

Background

On June 28, the head of Poland's Foreign Intelligence Agency publicly said Russia was ready to send "little green men" into the Baltic states; the next day Lithuania's Ministry of Defense said there were no objective signs of an imminent full-scale attack on the Baltics. On September 18, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the most likely near-term scenario was Russian hybrid attacks using drones and missiles against countries supporting Ukraine. On September 23, a Russian military helicopter violated Polish airspace near the city of Braniewo. The author of the deleted RIA Novosti text advocating a "special military operation" in Lithuania was identified as Aleksandr Nosovich, a member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP) and co-founder of the Valdai Club.