Tusk warns Sejm Russia planning hybrid strikes on NATO states supporting Ukraine

Why it matters

The warning came from the prime minister of a frontline NATO state and was grounded in intelligence he characterized as "very consistent and convincing." By spelling out a tactic in which Russia would stage strikes on NATO territory and present them as accidents, Tusk framed the threat as a deliberate test of Article 5, the alliance's collective-defense clause. The alert was underscored by the same-day incident in which a Russian drone came within roughly 4 km of the Polish border, with Polish aircraft scrambled in response. Tusk also used the speech to set expectations for a difficult winter, with intensified Russian strikes expected against Ukrainian energy, rail and border-crossing infrastructure.

What happened

On September 17, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament, in a speech marking the 87th anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland. He said intelligence shows Russia is planning hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries that support Ukraine, including Poland. Tusk described the intelligence as "very consistent and convincing" and said Russia would likely present any such incidents as accidents to avoid a NATO response.

According to Tusk, the goal of such actions would be to paralyze NATO's resolve to invoke collective-defense provisions and to convince member states that Article 5 is theoretical rather than practical, on the assumption that no one would want to die for the Baltic states. He said the late autumn and winter would be the most critical moment of the war, with Russia expected to mount constant high-intensity strikes on six major Ukrainian cities, as well as on rail and border-crossing infrastructure and the Ukrainian energy grid. He also warned that Russia is mass-deploying jet-powered drones that move at high speeds and altitudes, which few countries are prepared to counter effectively.

Earlier the same day, a Russian drone fell or was shot down about 4 km from the Polish-Ukrainian border in Volyn Oblast, according to Polish Armed Forces Operational Command spokesperson Lt. Col. Jacek Goryszewski. Polish aircraft were scrambled and air-raid sirens sounded in eastern districts of Poland. Polish forces had been prepared to shoot the drone down if it crossed into Polish airspace. Tusk also said he would visit Ukraine on September 18.

The speech followed two remarks the day before: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's annual State of the Union address, in which she said the EU faces a growing number of hybrid threats on its territory and that Europe's readiness must grow proportionally; and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's warning that Europe would face a "very short" war if, in his words, "Europe attacks Russia," alongside his statement that Russia does not plan to attack European countries. Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said Poland would strengthen the protection of its airspace in response to Russian provocations, and Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski announced that Poland is preparing its largest military aid package for Ukraine.

How international sources describe it

Reporting in Ukrainian and international outlets framed Tusk's remarks as the most explicit public warning from a NATO leader to date that Russia is preparing deliberate hybrid provocations against alliance territory, with the stated aim of eroding faith in Article 5. Politico reported that the assessment drew on intelligence shared among NATO, Ukrainian and Polish services. CNN wrote that Russian hybrid operations against Europe aim to create a sense of war approaching without crossing into direct conflict, and that Moscow could eventually miscalculate and force NATO to respond with force, identifying two Russian goals: making the cost of supporting Ukraine feel like a rising burden on European societies, and testing the credibility of Article 5. A letter seen by Radio Liberty in August showed growing concern in the Baltic states about Russian aggression amid an increasing frequency of airspace violations and drone incursions.

Where reporting differs

Some reports on Tusk's speech attribute the intelligence he cited to NATO, Ukrainian and Polish services jointly, while other accounts of the same speech do not specify which services the data came from. Tusk himself did not name the services in his remarks.

Background

Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty treats an armed attack against one NATO member as an attack against all members, forming the basis of the alliance's collective defense. Tusk's address fell on the 87th anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion of Poland, a date that anchors Polish historical memory around aggression from the east. On September 16, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her State of the Union address that the EU faces a growing number of hybrid threats on its territory and that Europe's readiness to respond must grow proportionally, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Europe would face a "very short" war if "Europe attacks Russia," while adding that Russia does not plan to attack European countries.