Ukraine's tech advisor warns Russia's Rassvet satellites could enable online drone control
Ukrainian presidential technology advisor Serhiy Beskrestnov warned on September 20 that Russia's Rassvet satellite constellation could give Moscow the ability to control Shahed-type drones and missiles online, calling the prospect a "small catastrophe" for Ukraine. He urged rapid deployment of electronic warfare coverage for critical infrastructure.
Key points
- Presidential tech advisor Serhiy Beskrestnov warned on September 20 that Russia could gain online control of Shahed drones and missiles via the Rassvet satellite constellation.
- Beskrestnov described the prospect as a "small catastrophe" for Ukraine, not merely a problem.
- He said Ukraine must have working electronic warfare (EW) systems covering all key infrastructure by the time the threat materializes, and that building this coverage will not be fast or cheap.
- Russia's Bureau 1440 launched the first 16 Rassvet satellites on March 24 and a second batch of 16 on July 19; as of August 31 none of the second batch had reached the planned 550 km orbit, while 12 of the first batch had.
- An ISW report dated August 31 concluded that the second-batch failure shows Moscow was not prepared for the required deployment pace.
- Vadym Skibitsky of Ukraine's military intelligence said Russia plans to field 292 Rassvet satellites by 2027 and 924 by 2035.
- Russia lost Starlink access on February 1 and subsequently shifted focus to its own Rassvet system.
Why it matters
Online satellite control of strike drones and missiles would let Russia adapt targeting in real time, undermining current Ukrainian air-defense and electronic warfare approaches. Beskrestnov's warning frames Rassvet not as a future communications upgrade but as a near-term operational threat that requires Ukrainian EW coverage of critical infrastructure before the constellation becomes operational.
What happened
On September 20, Serhiy Beskrestnov, the Ukrainian presidential advisor on technology, warned that Russia's Rassvet satellite program could allow Moscow to control Shahed-type drones and missiles online. He called the prospect "a small catastrophe" for Ukraine and stressed that electronic warfare coverage of all key infrastructure must be in place by the time the threat materializes — a buildout he said would not be fast or cheap. Beskrestnov also noted that over the past year the Armed Forces of Ukraine had not systematically countered the Mesh-modem technology used by Russian strike drones, and he expressed confidence that Russia would eventually fix its engines and bring Rassvet satellites into their required orbits. He speculated that a single Angara rocket launch could unexpectedly deploy half of the constellation at once. The Rassvet program is being developed by Russia's Bureau 1440 as a domestic analogue of Starlink. The first 16 satellites launched on March 24; a second batch of 16 launched on July 19 had not reached the planned 550 km altitude as of August 31, according to N2YO tracker data cited by ISW. From the first batch, 12 had reached and were holding the 550 km altitude at the end of August. ISW assessed that the failure of the second batch shows Moscow was not prepared for the required deployment pace. Vadym Skibitsky of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate has stated that Russia plans to field 292 Rassvet satellites by 2027 and grow the constellation to 924 units by 2035.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Both Ukrainian sources frame Beskrestnov's warning as an urgent national-security alarm. They foreground the worst-case "small catastrophe" framing and the need for immediate electronic warfare coverage of critical infrastructure, treating Rassvet as an imminent operational threat rather than a long-term capability gap.
Background
Russia lost access to Starlink connectivity on February 1 and subsequently bet on its domestic Rassvet program as a Starlink analogue. Russia's Bureau 1440 launched the first 16 Rassvet satellites on March 24 and a second batch of 16 on July 19; as of August 31 none of the second batch had reached the planned 550 km orbit, while 12 of the first batch had. ISW concluded that the second-batch failure shows Moscow was not prepared for the required deployment pace. Vadym Skibitsky of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate has stated that Moscow plans to put 292 Rassvet satellites into orbit by 2027 and grow the constellation to 924 units by 2035.