Polish deputy defense minister: coming winter could be war's turning point in Russia's favor
Poland's Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk warned that the coming months, especially winter, could become a turning point in the war in Russia's favor, and that Russian strikes near the Polish border — including a September 13 hit on a passenger train locomotive carrying diplomats and politicians — amount to an attempt to cut Ukraine off from military supplies and test NATO. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk separately warned that more serious attacks on Polish territory cannot be ruled out.
Key points
- Poland's Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk made the assessment in a TVN24 interview reported by European Pravda.
- Tomczyk said the coming months, especially winter, could become a turning point in the war, potentially in Russia's favor.
- Tomczyk described Russian strikes near the Polish border as an attempt to cut Ukraine off from military supplies and said attacks on western Ukraine are also a test of NATO.
- Tomczyk cited CIA data pointing to near-term Russian scenarios against European countries, listing possible sabotage in Germany, hybrid-warfare escalation, and actions on the NATO border in the Baltic states.
- On September 13, Russia struck the locomotive of a passenger train near the Polish border; Ukrzaliznytsia said the drone's target may have been a train carrying diplomats and politicians, who were evacuated.
- Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Günter Sautter, an advisor to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, were among the passengers on that train.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the coming weeks and months will be a period of very active Russian actions and that more serious attacks on Polish territory cannot be ruled out.
Why it matters
A senior Polish defense official publicly elevated the stakes of the war by framing the coming winter as a possible turning point in Russia's favor and by tying recent strikes near NATO territory to a strategy of severing Ukraine's supply lines and probing the alliance. The warning, reinforced by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's caution about attacks on Polish soil, signals allied concern that the conflict could escalate beyond Ukraine. The reported presence of high-profile Western figures on the train struck on September 13 sharpens the diplomatic dimension of an already volatile situation.
What happened
In an interview with TVN24, reported by European Pravda, Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk said the coming months, especially winter, could become a turning point in the war, potentially in Russia's favor, and that Ukraine needs maximum Western support to withstand Russian attacks and defend against air strikes. He framed Russian strikes near the Polish border as an attempt to cut Ukraine off from military supplies, and said the recent attacks on western Ukraine are also a test of NATO. Citing CIA data, he listed possible near-term Russian scenarios against European countries: sabotage in Germany, an unprecedented escalation of hybrid warfare, and various actions in NATO-border territories such as the Baltic states. On September 13, Russia struck the locomotive of a passenger train near the Polish border; Ukrzaliznytsia suggested the drone's target may have been a train carrying diplomats and politicians, whose passengers were evacuated. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Günter Sautter, one of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's closest advisors, were among the passengers. Separately, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the coming weeks and months will be a period of very active Russian actions and that more serious attacks on Polish territory cannot be ruled out.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Both supplied articles are Ukrainian-language outlets that center the Polish official's framing: Russia is trying to sever Ukraine's military supply lines and test NATO through strikes on western Ukraine. The Ukrainian coverage foregrounds the diplomatic stakes by highlighting that the September 13 train reportedly carried diplomats and politicians, including former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and an advisor to Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The coverage frames the coming winter as a critical moment requiring maximum Western support for Ukraine to withstand Russian attacks.
Where reporting differs
The Polish deputy defense minister's surname is rendered as 'Tomczyk' in some reported facts and 'Tomchik' in the confirmed facts supplied — the same person, two spellings. One reported fact describes the September 13 event as a strike on a 'passenger train locomotive near the border with Poland,' while a confirmed fact phrases it as a strike on 'the locomotive of a passenger train near the border with Poland'; the wording differs slightly but the underlying event is the same.
Background
On September 13, Russia struck the locomotive of a passenger train near the Polish border; Ukrzaliznytsia suggested the target may have been a train carrying diplomats and politicians, whose passengers were evacuated. Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Günter Sautter, an advisor to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, were reported among the passengers. Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk made his assessment in an interview with TVN24, as reported by European Pravda.