Ukraine's military intelligence chief says Russia has resources to keep fighting into 2028
The head of Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR), Oleh Ivashchenko, said in an interview with Ukrinform that Russia is now economically weaker than at the start of the full-scale invasion but likely still has enough resources to continue the war in 2027 and 2028. He said Russia is using foreign mercenaries from more than 40 countries, that the contract-recruitment model has largely been exhausted, and that effective sanctions and partner enforcement are needed to drain Russia's resources.
Key points
- HUR head Oleh Ivashchenko told Ukrinform Russia likely has enough resources to continue the war in 2027 and 2028.
- Russia is using foreign mercenaries from more than 40 countries, including Central Asia, Africa and Latin America, often in assault units and sent ahead of Russian troops.
- Some mercenaries are recruited through deception: people travel to Russia seeking work and sign contracts without understanding them.
- Average daily Russian losses (killed and severely wounded) range from 1,200 to 1,400, sometimes reaching 1,500.
- Russia's contract-recruitment model is largely exhausted and regional budgets can no longer sustain the payments, according to HUR.
- Russia's main economic problems are labour shortages, a growing federal budget deficit and a worsening banking-sector situation.
- HUR says more than 60% of Russia's population is against the war, though it is unclear whether sufficient protest potential will form.
- On 16 August Ukraine's MFA reported at least 2,982 people recruited from 37 African countries, of whom 486 had been killed, and launched a multilingual web resource on Russian recruitment.
Why it matters
The assessment from the head of Ukraine's military intelligence sets a multi-year horizon for the war and frames the manpower and resource picture quantitatively: daily Russian losses of 1,200–1,400 (sometimes 1,500), an exhausted contract-recruitment model, and reliance on foreign mercenaries from more than 40 countries, some recruited by deception. It also ties the question of whether Russia can be drained of resources directly to sanctions enforcement and partner-country controls on electronics, machine tools and special chemicals, making sanctions policy a decisive variable.
What happened
In an interview with Ukrinform, HUR head Oleh Ivashchenko said Russia is now economically weaker than at the start of the full-scale invasion but assesses that it still has enough resources to continue fighting in 2027 and 2028. He said the contract-recruitment model has largely been exhausted and that Russian regional budgets can no longer sustain the payments needed to keep contracting soldiers. To offset losses, Russia is using foreign mercenaries from more than 40 countries — including Central Asia, Africa and Latin America — primarily in assault units and often pushed ahead of Russian forces; some are recruited through deception, travelling to Russia for work and signing contracts without understanding them. HUR puts average daily Russian losses (killed and severely wounded) at 1,200–1,400, sometimes reaching 1,500. Ivashchenko said more than 60% of Russia's population is against the war, though it is unclear whether a strong protest potential will form, and identified the condition for Russia running short of resources as sanctions that genuinely work, with HUR having identified countries supplying electronics, machine tools and special chemicals through intermediary companies.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
All supplied sources are Ukrainian, and coverage centres on statements by HUR head Oleh Ivashchenko and on Ukrainian institutional actions — including the MFA's 16 August report on recruitment from 37 African countries and the launch of a multilingual web resource on Russian recruitment methods, and President Zelensky's earlier public appeal to Putin not to continue the war in 2027 and 2028. Ukrainian sources frame the war as a multi-year challenge that requires both domestic resilience and effective cooperation with international partners, stressing simultaneously that Russia's economy has weakened and that its war-making capacity persists into 2028.
Background
Russia's economy is weaker than at the start of the full-scale invasion, with labour shortages, a growing federal budget deficit and problems in the banking sector. Earlier in June, President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly urged President Vladimir Putin not to continue the war in 2027 and 2028. On 16 August, Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that Russia had recruited at least 2,982 people from 37 African countries, of whom 486 had been killed, and launched an English/French/Swahili web resource on Russian recruitment methods. US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Kyiv on 6 September after meeting Putin in Moscow; Zelensky said on 3 August 2026 that Ukraine would work to make Russia end the war before winter, while Kushner said ending the war by winter was not guaranteed.