Poland's trade surplus with Ukraine hits record €9.7 billion as Ukraine's deficit widens
A Polish economic analysis based on Eurostat data shows Poland's goods trade surplus with Ukraine reached a record €9.7 billion by May 2026, driven by a 169% rise in Polish exports since late 2020 against a 72% rise in Ukrainian exports. Poland remains the largest EU exporter to Ukraine, with its share of EU exports to the country rising to 29.5%. Separately, Ukraine's overall foreign trade deficit for the first nine months of 2026 has already surpassed the full-year 2025 figure.
Key points
- Poland is the largest EU exporter to Ukraine; its share of EU exports to Ukraine rose from 22.7% to 29.5% over roughly five and a half years.
- Polish exports to Ukraine grew from about €5.2 billion in December 2020 to €14.1 billion in May 2026, a 169% increase.
- Ukrainian exports to Poland grew from about €2.5 billion to €4.4 billion, roughly 72%, over the same period.
- Poland's positive trade balance with Ukraine increased from about €2.7 billion to a record €9.7 billion.
- Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Italy follow Poland as the next largest EU exporters to Ukraine; Germany's share is 18.5%.
- In the first nine months of 2026, Ukraine imported over $75.1 billion and exported nearly $29.6 billion of foreign trade — a deficit of about $45.5 billion.
- Ukraine's nine-month 2026 deficit already exceeds the full-year 2025 deficit of about $44.5 billion.
- Over 73% of Ukraine's imports by value are machinery, transport equipment, fuel and energy goods, and chemicals; a Ukrainian expert attributes trade difficulties to strikes on logistics infrastructure.
Why it matters
Poland has become the single largest EU exporter to Ukraine and has steadily increased its share of EU sales to the Ukrainian market. The gap between Polish exports to Ukraine and Ukrainian exports to Poland illustrates Ukraine's deep reliance on imports relative to its constrained export capacity. Ukraine's widening overall foreign trade deficit — already exceeding the previous full-year figure after only nine months — points to a worsening external imbalance, which strikes on logistics infrastructure are identified as a factor limiting Ukraine's ability to export and import.
What happened
A Polish economic report based on Eurostat data and published through the "Monitor of Ukrainian Affairs" by the Polish Bank of the National Economy (BGK), reported by RMF24, documents a record €9.7 billion positive trade balance for Poland with Ukraine. Polish exports to Ukraine rose 169% from approximately €5.2 billion in December 2020 to €14.1 billion in May 2026, while Ukrainian exports to Poland rose roughly 72% from about €2.5 billion to €4.4 billion. Poland's share of total EU exports to Ukraine grew from 22.7% to 29.5%, with Germany second at 18.5%, followed by Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Italy. Separately, over the first nine months of 2026, Ukraine imported goods worth more than $75.1 billion and exported goods worth nearly $29.6 billion, producing a deficit of about $45.5 billion — already above the roughly $44.5 billion full-year deficit for 2025. Over 73% of Ukraine's imports are machinery, transport equipment, fuel and energy goods, and chemicals; a Ukrainian expert cited in coverage attributes trade difficulties to strikes on logistics infrastructure.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
Ukrainian-language coverage, citing the Polish analytical source, foregrounds Poland's export lead and the widening bilateral gap as the central story. Coverage also amplifies a domestic Ukrainian expert who attributes trade difficulties to strikes on logistics infrastructure, centering the disruption to Ukraine's own trade flows alongside the headline trade figures.
Background
The figures cover roughly December 2020 to May 2026 and draw on Eurostat-based analysis from the Polish Bank of the National Economy (BGK), published in the "Monitor of Ukrainian Affairs." Germany, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Italy follow Poland among EU exporters to Ukraine. Over 73% of Ukraine's imports by value are machinery, transport equipment, fuel and energy goods, and chemicals.