Bulgaria's presidential election: Yotova leads polls ahead of first round on 25 October
Bulgaria holds the first round of its presidential election on 25 October. Acting interim president Iliana Yotova, a former deputy of Prime Minister Rumen Radev, faces former pro-Ukrainian prime minister Andrey Gyurov. Polls put the Yotova–Vilchev ticket at 44–47% and the Gyurov–Kandev ticket at 24–26%, with about 30% of voters still undecided. The vote is taking place amid an unusually tight grip on power by Radev, whose Progressive Bulgaria holds a parliamentary majority.
Key points
- First round of Bulgaria's presidential election scheduled for 25 October.
- Acting interim president Iliana Yotova runs with Kiril Vilchev; former pro-Ukrainian PM Andrey Gyurov runs with Georgi Kandev.
- Polling: Yotova–Vilchev at 44–47%, Gyurov–Kandev at 24–26%; Alfa Research says about 30% of voters may switch on election day.
- Rumen Radev serves as prime minister; his Progressive Bulgaria holds 131 of 240 parliamentary seats after April elections.
- A Yotova win would, in the synthesis, give Radev more leverage to resist EU sanctions and question Bulgaria's solidarity with the EU and NATO.
- A Gyurov win would provide a pro-Western counterweight to Radev, though foreign policy is not expected to shift fully.
Why it matters
The election will test whether Bulgaria — currently the EU member most openly filling the role once played by Hungary under Viktor Orbán in resisting sanctions on Russian-linked figures — continues on that course or acquires a pro-Western counterweight at the presidential level. The result shapes Bulgaria's stance on EU sanctions packages, on support for Ukraine including the coalition of the willing, and on defense procurement choices already tilting toward Soviet-era platforms.
What happened
Bulgaria's first round of presidential elections is set for 25 October. Two tickets dominate the race: the Yotova–Vilchev ticket led by acting interim president Iliana Yotova, who served as a deputy to Prime Minister Rumen Radev, and the Gyurov–Kandev ticket led by Andrey Gyurov, a former prime minister described in Ukrainian reporting as pro-Ukrainian. Recent polls put Yotova at 44–47% and Gyurov at 24–26%, with Alfa Research noting roughly 30% of voters may still change their vote. The election follows a year in which Radev resigned the presidency early, led his new Progressive Bulgaria to 131 of 240 parliamentary seats in April, and formed Bulgaria's first single-party-majority government since the early 2020s. His government blocked sanctions against Patriarch Kirill and former Lukoil head Vagit Alekperov, scaled back planned Rheinmetall ammunition and gunpowder plants, and begun seeking MiG-29s and spare parts for Soviet-era aircraft from allies, citing Bulgarian airspace defense over Ukrainian needs.
How Ukrainian sources describe it
The reporting in Ukrainska Pravda and Yevropeiska Pravda, authored by analysts at the Ukrainian Prism Foreign Policy Council, is framed squarely in terms of Ukraine's interests. Yotova and Radev are described as pro-Russian and "almost allies of the Kremlin," while Gyurov is cast as a pro-Ukrainian candidate who could restrain Radev's authoritarian drift. The election is presented as a choice between a trajectory closer to or further from Kyiv, with consequences for EU sanctions support and for Bulgaria's role in the coalition of the willing.
Where reporting differs
Sources diverge on whether Bulgaria's foreign minister signed a joint declaration on the coalition of the willing at the 15 July Ukraine–South-Eastern Europe summit in Kyiv: the reporting records that the minister signed, while Prime Minister Radev publicly claimed nothing was signed. A similar split occurred in New York in September, when EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is cited as saying Bulgaria joined a joint statement of solidarity with Ukraine, while Yotova stated she had signed nothing.
Background
Bulgaria has been in near-constant political turmoil since 2021, with repeated early elections that failed to resolve the situation. In 2026, then-president Rumen Radev resigned early, organised early parliamentary elections, and formed Progressive Bulgaria, which displaced GERB, DPS and PP-DB from political control and produced the country's first stable government in years. That government has pushed back against EU sanctions targeting Patriarch Kirill and Vagit Alekperov, scaled back Rheinmetall plants citing budget constraints, and begun seeking MiG-29s and spare parts for Soviet-era aircraft from allies. On 14 July, Radev refused to join the coalition of the willing; the following day Bulgaria's foreign minister signed a related joint declaration that Radev then denied, with a similar incident reported in New York in September.