Ukraine's annual inflation accelerates to 10% in September, driven by eggs, education, and fuel
Ukraine's State Statistics Service published inflation data on 9 October showing that annual consumer price inflation reached 10% in September 2026, up from 8.1% in August. Monthly inflation accelerated sharply from 0.1% to 2.1%, driven by a 43.6% month-on-month rise in egg prices, a 17.4% rise in education services, and a 5.2% rise in fuel and lubricants. The reading matches the National Bank of Ukraine's revised end-2026 forecast of 10%.
Key points
- Annual inflation reached 10% in September 2026, up from 8.1% in August.
- Monthly consumer price index rose 2.1% in September, compared with 0.1% in August.
- Core inflation accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year from 8.1% in August; core CPI rose 2.0% on the month.
- Egg prices rose 43.6% month-on-month.
- Education services rose 17.4% month-on-month and 19.6% year-on-year, with higher education up 23.3% and secondary education up 14.3%.
- Fuel and lubricants rose 5.2% month-on-month and 46.2% year-on-year.
- In late July, the NBU raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 9.4% to 10% and warned that new Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure could add 0.4–0.6 percentage points to end-2026 inflation.
Why it matters
The return of double-digit annual inflation reverses the disinflationary trend seen earlier in the year — June had even recorded the first monthly deflation in twelve months. With the National Bank of Ukraine already forecasting 10% headline inflation for end-2026 and warning that further attacks on logistics infrastructure could push prices even higher, September's data confirms both the trajectory and the vulnerability of the Ukrainian economy to war-related supply shocks. Sharp monthly increases in food, education, clothing, and fuel place immediate pressure on household budgets.
What happened
On 9 October 2026, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine released consumer price data for September 2026. Annual inflation stood at 10% — up from 8.1% in August and 7.7% in July — while the monthly consumer price index rose 2.1%, compared with 0.1% the month before. Core inflation accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month.
The largest monthly price increases were in eggs (+43.6%), education services (+17.4%, with higher education +23.3% and secondary education +14.3%), clothing (+9.4%) and footwear (+7.6%), fuel and lubricants (+5.2%), and water supply and sewage tariffs (+5.6% and +5.5% respectively). Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 1.9% on the month and 8.9% on the year, with sugar, processed grain products, salo, milk, non-alcoholic beverages, fish products, sunflower oil, and meat and meat products rising 1.7–8.3%. Transport overall rose 2.7% month-on-month and 26.9% year-on-year, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose 1.4% on the month and 17.2% on the year. Healthcare prices rose 1.7% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with pharmaceuticals up 2.6% on the month. Fruit prices fell 5.7% and vegetables 2.3% on the month.
Background
Annual inflation had slowed to 7.2% in June 2026, the same month the State Statistics Service recorded monthly deflation for the first time in a year, before rising to 7.7% in July and 8.1% in August. At the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its inflation forecast for 2026 from 9.4% to 10% and for 2027 from 6.5% to 6.9%, and estimated that new Russian attacks on logistics infrastructure could add 0.4–0.6 percentage points to annual inflation by the end of 2026.